Beyond the constantly escalating rhetoric pouring out of Moscow and Tehran, threatening “catastrophic consequences” and a Middle East “fireball,” if the US goes ahead with its military strike against Syria, there are no visible signs of preparations by Russia, Iran – and even Hizballah – to step in and help their ally in Damascus stand up to an American attack.
They may be wary of tangling directly with the US in armed combat, preferring to trust in Washington’s assurances that the operation, far from aiming to topple Bashar Assad’s regime, will confine itself to an accounting with those responsible for the Aug. 21 chemical attack east of Damascus.
Or else, Moscow and Tehran may be reserving their options for consideration when they see how the US operation turns out.
On the other hand, the Russians, Iranians, Syrians - and evidently Beijing as well – may be setting the US a trap. This could come in the physical form of a Russian military landing in Syria, which there would be no US troops on the ground to oppose, or a cyber attack to sabotage the effectiveness of the US operation against Syria.
The Yugoslavia war: A treasure house of Intelligence traps
Certain events of the Yugoslavia conflict come to mind in this context.
NATO intervention in the Kosovo war in 1991 and 1998, and US Operation Anvil in 1998 - in which the US Air Force bombed Yugoslavia for four months - were heavily diluted by the intelligence Russian and Chinese agents passed to enemy forces with precise data on the scheduling and locations of the US rocket and air attacks before they came.
Also in the Kosovo war, the Russians instigated a fait accompli at Pristina international airport on June 12, by occupying the airport ahead of a NATO deployment.
The result was a tension-laden standoff. The Western alliance command finally had to swallow Russian command of the control tower and, therefore, the airport and put up with it for four years.
On May 7, 1999, the US Air Force razed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, after discovering it was the center in Serbia of intelligence and electronic warfare against NATO allies.
Another striking instance of an intelligence trap occurred in Israel’s Second Lebanon War of 2006, when Iranian electronic warfare experts enabled a Hizballah missile fired from a shore battery to strike and almost sink Israel’s most advanced missile ship, the INS Hanit.
None of these traps changed the course of the military contest, but they seriously undermined the morale of the armies targeted by guile.
Russians to establish a presence on Syrian territory
DEBKA Weekly’s sources do not exclude the possibility of the Syrian ruler’s staunch champion, President Vladimir Putin, ordering Russian military forces to land in Syria and seize control of strategic areas, especially would-be sanctuaries for Assad. This landing might also save Assad and keep his army from collapsing under the first wave of the US operation. It might also deter the US from continuing and expanding its military operation in the country.
The Russians might decide to adopt one of the tactics postulated for the US operation whereby a limited initial strike would unfold into a broad operation, depending on circumstances and field conditions. At first, the Russians would captured a small piece of land for the sake of bolstering the Assad regime, and then bring in more forces to expand this holding.
Since the Obama administration has prohibited any US army boots on Syrian soil, incoming Russian landing forces would face no resistance except from Syrian insurgents. In any case Moscow prefers to avoid any military contact with the Americans
The Russian army has never had any trouble in handling rebel militias. In early 2012, when Russian plans started landing with supplies for the Syrian army at Damascus, Aleppo and Latakia military airports, they warned armed Syrian insurgents against daring to touch Russian soldiers or aircraft. The rebels have every since kept their distance.
Moscow, like Washington, would adhere to pre-defined objectives – possibly laying down markers for its presence in Syria, certainly not messing with the Americans.
Iran and China may try cyber sabotage
China and Iran are more likely to opt for stealth rather than direct military action.
Since the US warships firing Tomahawks cruise missiles at Syrian targets will be out of Syrian missile range, Beijing and Tehran may try to launch a cyber attack on the advanced US weapons and ships’ systems to disarm their capabilities.
Two years ago, Iran aided by Chinese cyber whizzes succeeded in commandeering America’s most secret advanced spy drone, the RQ-170 Sentinel, by overriding CIA satellite communications and command. The prized UAV was brought down intact inside Iran, and some of its stealth technology grafted onto an Iranian drone, which in October 2012, penetrated Israeli air space.
China and Iran may decide to use the occasion of an American cruise missile strike from warships cruising out at sea to make Syria their testing ground for cyber warfare against the United States.
By forgoing an air assault and relegating his projected military operation against Syria solely to seaborne Tomahawk cruise missiles, US President Barack Obama relinquished America’s “penetration and destruction” capabilities against an abbreviated list of military targets selected for the operation.
In a word, the president curtailed the range of US weapons systems assigned to the attack. By sticking exclusively to Tomahawks, Washington a priori sacrificed the following military objectives:
1. Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles will remain intact. The Tomahawks can damage surface structures at the bases hosting them, but not penetrate their underground storage sites.
Assad will be left in full possession of his CW arsenal.
2. Neither can Tomahawks alone cripple the Syrian Air Force or shut down its bases. They could damage runways, but only for the hours or days it would take to repair them.
DEBKA Weekly's military sources say that the Syria air force is left with six air bases still operational, out of a total of thirty. All them could be destroyed simply by a quantity of missiles heavier than Tomahawks or air strikes. Their destruction would have given the Syrian rebels a huge advantage and opened the way for a plan to impose no-fly zones over Syrian air space.
But Obama clearly chose to discard those options.
No serious disruptions of Assad regime or military capabilities
By delaying his go-ahead on military action against Syria – even for a low-key operation, guaranteed to involve no more than 15 Tomahawk missiles – he gave the Assad regime time to tuck most of its air force bombers and attack helicopters away in fortified hangars early this week, safe from attack. As the hours slipped by with no US action, the Syrian ruler’s self-confidence mounted.
All the Tomahawks can attack now are the surface structures at those air bases.
3. Syrian missiles have likewise been hidden in underground bunkers. They include the Scud C and D missiles which capable of carrying chemical warheads.
4. The big Syrian field command centers will also escape unscathed, although DEBKA Weekly’s military sources report that many of them figures large as strategic assets on the list of targets which the Pentagon and US military chiefs put before the president.
Among them were the command and control centers of the Syrian army’s 4th Division and Republican Guard Division, which protect Bashar Assad and bolster his regime's hold on power.
The list also included military command centers in Homs, Hama, Tartus, Latakia, the Aleppo area and Idlib.
Striking those targets would have shut down the Syrian military command system and seriously disrupted its operational capabilities.
Assad could carry on exactly as before
A second list of 35 strategic targets was handed to President Obama by Syrian rebel commander Brig. Gen. Salim Idris, according to our sources. Their destruction was described as vital. However, not a single item on the list was approved by the president, the Pentagon on the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Martin Dempsey.
This rejection confirmed the total mistrust and disconnect characterizing relations between the US administration and military, and the Syrian rebel leadership.
5. Our sources say that the only targets left on the US military to-do list for Syria are mainly certain Syrian artillery units, some of which participated in the chemical weapons launch of August 21 against eastern Damascus; local command and communications centers; and a number of Syrian research institutes involved in the development and upgrade of Syrian chemical weapons.
This heavily pruned US operation, if it goes through, will leave Syrian President Bashar Assad sitting pretty with most of his military resources intact, and his hands free to continue his barbaric war on the Syrian opposition, including the use of chemical weapons, unhindered and undeterred.
But what if Obama has second thoughts?
Might Obama be deterred but this shabby outcome and have second thoughts? He may even surprise everyone with another U-turn, this one reverting to the far more ambitious and wide-reaching US Plan A for Syria. The prospects of this were very slim at this time.
Planned originally, according to DEBKA Weekly’s military sources, was a targeted assault on the two Syrian army divisions - not just for the crime of massacring civilians with poison gas, but as protectors of the Assad regime in Damascus.
Destroying their communications links, command and control centers and their armed and artillery units would leave the Syrian president, his General Staff and the top tier of government with minimal defenses.
It would also sharply shrink the regime’s military assets in the capital and bring them down to a level approximating those commanded by the rebel forces beleaguering Damascus.
On Aug. 21, debkafile revealed that, eleven days earlier, several hundred rebel fighters, trained in special operations tactics by American military instructors based in Jordan, entered Syria from the Hashemite Kingdom.
Another 3,000 are now standing on the border ready to go in. This increment to the rebel strength looming over Damascus could tip the scales against government forces. It might even be enough to drive Assad and his loyal regime heads into flight from the capital to the loyal northwestern towns of Tartus and Latakia on the Mediterranean coast and the Alawite Mountains.
Will Obama turn the clock back or mark time?
This projected chain of events would suggest that the Obama administration’s original plan, notwithstanding protestation to the contrary, would have gone far beyond the limited objective of an accounting with Syria over its use of chemical weapons. It would in act have led to regime change.
This is what the Syrians, the Iranians and the Russians suspected.
They also saw the American game plan as aiming at seriously degrading the Syrian army’s assets in and outside the capital.
They also suspected the Americans of planning to knock out the only six Syrian air bases out of 30 that were still serviceable, or order to remove Assad’s air force from the war equation.
Another part of the initial US blueprint proposed taking out the government’s naval facilities along the Mediterranean coast and its shore defenses.
All in all, that plan, which President Obama appeared to have discarded in his latest comments Wednesday, Aug. 28, would have sought to turn the Syrian clock back to late 2012, when the Syrian opposition was gaining the upper hand in the civil war and government forces falling back.
In early 2013, Moscow, Tehran and Hizballah stepped in to turn the tide of the war in favor of their ally. They pumped fresh fighting forces into Syria from Iran, Lebanon and Iraq, established a new Syrian popular army armed with huge infusions of weapons, and put up half a billion dollars a month to bankroll the Assad regime.
The first US military plan aimed at restoring the pre-2013 status quo and giving the rebels back the edge they held in late 2012. So which plan is Obama going for? The ambitious Plan A or its pallid successor? The answer is just days away.
WASHINGTON — The administration of President Barack Obama has been warned that Syria’s chemical weapons could be dispersed and that Jordan could collapse.
A leading senator said the Hashemite kingdom was under tremendous strain from the civil war in neighboring Jordan. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Jordan’s King Abdullah
could not bear the huge Syrian refugee population as well as threats from Iran and Al Qaida-aligned rebels.
“You ask me about my biggest fear would be to lose the king of Jordan for prolonged war, that the Al Qaida elements of the rebels could wind up seizing the chemical weapons cache, that Assad would share chemical weapons or advance Russian weapons with Hizbullah, which would be a direct threat,” Graham said.
Over the last few months, Graham has repeatedly warned of Jordan’s vulnerability. In July, the senator told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Abdullah said in 2012 that the influx of Syrian refugees — now reported at more than 650,000 — could destroy his regime. Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he shared that concern.
“Will [Abdullah] be in power a year from now?” Graham asked Dempsey. “I
have met with him and he is concerned with the demographic change. He told
me last year he did not think he will be there in another year because there will be a million Syrian refugees destabilizing Jordan. Do you agree with
that?”
“That is his concern,” Dempsey replied.
Earlier, Graham said Abdullah could not face an emboldened regime of
Syrian President Bashar Assad. The senator urged Obama to use Jordan and Turkey to neutralize Assad’s military, backed by Iran and Russia.
“So the balance of power is really now on Assad’s side,” Graham told a
television roundtable on June 13. “And if we don’t do more than add AK-47s
into the mix, he will continue to win. And the king of Jordan is going to
become toast.”
One option raised by Graham was the use of Jordan and Turkey to
establish a no-fly zone in Syria to protect Sunni rebels. Graham cited the
U.S. deployment of F-16 multi-role fighters and PAC-3 air and missile
defense systems in the kingdom.
Graham, in close contact with Abdullah, envisioned the fall
of the Hashemite kingdom and its replacement by an Al Qaida-aligned regime.
He said Washington must ensure the departure of Assad for regional
stability.
“But if the war lasts six, four months, Jordan’s going to go,” Graham said. “And Israel’s going to be surrounded by a Syria on fire, Jordan more
radical, and Egypt becoming more radical. The whole region’s about to blow
up. And our foreign policy to me, I don’t understand it. Whatever it is is not working.”
Barack Obama’s plans for air strikes against Syria were thrown into disarray on Thursday night after the British parliament unexpectedly rejected a motion designed to pave the way to authorizing the UK’s participation in military action.
The White House was forced to consider the unpalatable option of taking unilateral action against the regime of Bashar al-Assad after the British prime minister, David Cameron, said UK would not now take part in any military action in response to a chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus last week.
Although Britain’s support was not a prerequisite for US action, the Obama administration was left exposed without the backing of its most loyal ally, which has taken part in every major US military offensive in recent years.
Caitlin Hayden, a spokeswoman for Obama’s national security council, indicated the administration would consider acting unliaterally. “The US will continue to consult with the UK government – one of our closest allies and friends. As we’ve said, President Obama’s decision-making will be guided by what is in the best interests of the United States.
“He believes that there are core interests at stake for the United States and that countries who violate international norms regarding chemical weapons need to be held accountable.”
The US appears to have taken British support for granted. Hours before the vote, the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, Diane Feinstein, expressed confidence that Britain would join any strike.
Feinstein, a Democrat and staunch administration ally, told Time magazine: “I think the UK makes a difference. I think if the president were to decide to go there’s a very high likelihood that the United Kingdom would be with us.”
The timing of the British vote, 272 to 285 against the government, was disastrous for Obama. Less than 30 minutes after the vote, senior intelligence officials began a conference call with key members of Congress, in an attempt to keep US lawmakers on side.
Congressional leaders and the chairs and ranking members of national security committees were briefed by the most senior US intelligence officials, amid signs that some of the support for military strikes against Syria was fading.
After the briefing, Carl Levin, the Democratic chairman of the Senate armed services committee, urged a cautious approach. “I have previously called for the United States to work with our friends and allies to increase the military pressure on the Assad regime by providing lethal aid to vetted elements of the Syrian opposition.
“Tonight, I suggested that we should do so while UN inspectors complete their work and while we seek international support for limited, targeted strikes in response to the Assad regime’s large-scale use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people.”
The UN has said more time should be given to diplomacy, and France, which earlier this week declared its support for taking action against Syria, is now calling for more time so UN inspections can be completed. A session of the United Nations security council in New York, called by Russia, broke up without agreement.
Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, instructed the 20-strong inspection team in Damascus to leave on Saturday, a day ahead of schedule. Ban also announced that the team would report to him immediately on departure, raising the possibility that the UN could issue an interim report on the 21 August chemical attacks that left hundreds of people dead.
The inspectors had not been due to deliver their findings for a week at least. The demand for a rushed early assessment reflects the fraught atmosphere at the UN triggered by US threats to launch punitive air strikes within days.
Shortly before Britain’s parliamentary vote, the New York Times quoted senior administration officials saying the US administration was prepared to launch strikes on Syria without a UN security council mandate or the support of allies such as Britain.
Throughout history, governments have twisted science to suit a political agenda. Global warming is no different, according to Dr. Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“Global climate alarmism has been costly to society, and it has the potential to be vastly more costly. It has also been damaging to science, as scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions,” writes Lindzen in the fall 2013 issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.
According to Lindzen, scientists make essentially “meaningless” claims about certain phenomenon. Activists for certain causes take up claims made by scientists and politicians respond to the alarmism spread by activists by doling out more research funding. — creating an “Iron Triangle” of poor incentives.
“How can one escape from the Iron Triangle when it produces flawed science that is immensely influential and is forcing catastrophic public policy?” Lindzen asks.
Lindzen compares global warming to past politicized scientific movements: the eugenics movement in the early 20th Century and Lysenkoism in the Soviet Union under Stalin. However, the MIT professor argues that global warming goes even beyond what these past movements in terms of twisting science.
“Global Warming has become a religion,” writes Lindzen. “A surprisingly large number of people seem to have concluded that all that gives meaning to their lives is the belief that they are saving the planet by paying attention to their carbon footprint.”
“There may be a growing realization that this may not add all that much meaning to one’s life, but, outside the pages of the Wall Street Journal, this has not been widely promulgated, and people with no other source of meaning will defend their religion with jihadist zeal,” he added.
President Obama announced his plan to tackle global warming this summer.
“I refuse to condemn your generation and future generations to a planet that’s beyond fixing,” Obama said. “And that’s why, today, I’m announcing a new national climate action plan, and I’m here to enlist your generation’s help in keeping the United States of America a leader — a global leader — in the fight against climate change.”
A recently leaked report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claims there is a 95 percent chance that human activity — mostly from burning fossil fuels — is the main cause of global warming.
However, there has been no rise in global temperatures for the past 15 years.
The west is playing in to Moscow’s hands on Syria
It is, of course, very easy to picture the US as a global bully ever bent on inventing pretexts for aggression. Iran will be jubilant. Many people in Syria will be inclined to resist a new imperialist crusade. Upping the ante is advantageous for Moscow. The more the western powers are involved in the conflict, the more deeply they are immersed, the more opportunities emerge for Russia to back the Assad regime as a “legitimate authority under attack”.
MAJOR FIREBALL EVENT, UPGRADED
NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office has upgraded its estimates of a major fireball that exploded over the southeastern USA on August 28th. Lead researcher Bill Cooke says " the fireball reached a peak magnitude of -13, brighter than a Full Moon, and cast shadows on the ground.
Gay Spouses in All States Now Married Under U.S. Tax Law
Gay spouses in all U.S. states will be treated as married under federal tax law even if local authorities don’t recognize their marriages... The decision by the Treasury Department today implements the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn part of the federal Defense of Marriage Act, which had forbidden the Internal Revenue Service from letting married homosexual couples file joint tax returns.
CME WILL NOT HIT EARTH, STORMS POSSIBLE ANYWAY
A coronal mass ejection (CME) propelled into space yesterday by an erupting solar filament will not hit Earth. However, a solar wind stream will. The stream, which is flowing from a coronal hole in the sun's northern hemisphere, is expected to arrive on August 30-31, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms.
Immigration Reform 2013: House Gang Preps Comprehensive Bill For October Push
Democratic Rep. Luis Gutierrez has said earlier this week, while speaking in Republican territory in Virginia, that he’s already signed off on the measure and eager to introduce it. Now we know that all the Democrats within the bipartisan gang remain unified on the agreement and are waiting on their Republican counterparts to sign off on it. When the Republicans give the go signal, the group will wait for what it believes is the “right bipartisan moment” to introduce the bill, which members believe is in October. By that time they hope Congress will be over the budget fight, with an appropriations bill passed to avert the threat of a government shutdown.
France's Hollande backs US on Syria action
The French president has said a vote by UK MPs against involvement in military strikes on Syria has not changed France's resolve to take firm action. Francois Hollande said all options were being considered, and that a strike within days was not ruled out. His comments came after US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said Washington would continue to seek a coalition for possible military action.
King Abdullah of Jordan has audience with Pope Francis
Pope Francis met Thursday with King Abdullah II and Queen Rania of Jordan in an audience at the Vatican. Abdullah also held a discussion with Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, the Vatican secretary of state, and Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, secretary of state for international relations, Vatican Radio reported. Francis thanked the king for arranging a conference, to be held in Amman in September, on the role of Christians in Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East.
Fifth American destroyer heads to Mediterranean in build-up of possible Syria strike
A few hours after reports surfaced that Russia sent two missile ships into the Mediterranean Sea due to the Syria crisis, the US sent another destroyer, their fifth so far, towards the center of the build-up and probably increases the possibility of an attack on Syria. According to an American security source quoted in the Daily Star, "the US is expected to make the 'Stout' destroyer available for an imminent attack against Syria."
MIT professor: global warming is a ‘religion’
...there has been no rise in global temperatures for the past 15 years.
Mystery grows: Journalist died prepping Obama exposé
Major probe tied to agent suspected of sanitizing president's passport records Before his death in a fiery car crash, Michael Hastings was preparing to publish a major investigative piece tied to the undercover agent who is suspected of sanitizing President Obama’s passport records prior to the 2008 presidential election. The mystery has only deepened since the Los Angeles Coroner’s Office ruled that drugs in his system at the time of the June 18 crash, including amphetamines and marijuana, likely did not contribute to the crash.
New Snowden Leak Reports ‘Groundbreaking’ NSA Crypto-Cracking
“Also,” Clapper writes in a line marked “top secret,” “we are investing in groundbreaking cryptanalytic capabilities to defeat adversarial cryptography and exploit internet traffic.”
United Launch Alliance Rocket Puts US Spy Satellite Into Orbit
A top secret payload was launched from a Delta IV Heavy rocket on Wednesday morning. The rocket lifted off at 11:03 am PDT from the Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California, carrying a US spy satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). Officials at United Launch Alliance said the rocket launch was successful, despite a ten minute delay due to minor issues.
Massive Canyon Discovered Beneath Greenland Ice Sheet
One of the largest canyons in the world has been discovered beneath the Greenland ice sheet, according to new research appearing in the latest edition of the journal Science. Lead author Jonathan Bamber, a professor at the University of Bristol’s School of Geographical Sciences, and colleagues report that the canyon is at least 460 miles (750km) long, up to 2,600 feet (800m) deep in places.
Colcord, Oklahoma, residents told to watch out for blood worms in water supply
There are no known health effects from the worms, which range from about a quarter to a half inch in length. But local officials aren't taking any chances, hand-delivering letters to residents warning them to stick to bottled water for the time being.
British MPs reject military intervention in Syria
Any possibility of British involvement in a military campaign in Syria has been effectively ruled out after British lawmakers voted down the prospect in parliament, costing the US the nation’s closest ally in a potential strike.
Obama Weighs Solo Action on Syria
Obama finds himself on the verge of pursuing the very kind of go-it-alone approach in Syria that he accused his predecessor of using in Iraq after British lawmakers reject measure to give preliminary approval to military action.
Obama Uses Executive Actions to Bypass Congress on Gun Control Again
On August 29, Vice President Joe Biden announced two new gun control measures implemented by President Obama via executive actions. Fox News reports the measures target military surplus weapons and the method in which certain guns are registered in the United States.
As the prospects of another war in the Middle East increase, one country is looking to cut its energy ties with the region and manage its own needs, thanks to newly discovered gas riches.
Indeed, the recent discovery that Israel’s offshore natural gas reserves are far larger than previously thought has the potential to revolutionize the country’s economic fortunes. The find could save Israel tens of billions of dollars in energy imports from Egypt and other places, and see it positioned as a new natural gas source for Europe, one of the world’s largest LNG markets.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, recoverable natural gas in the Levant Basin located in Israeli and Cypriot waters of the eastern Mediterranean Sea, amounts to a massive 18.9 trillion cubic feet.
One industry CEO called the finding “a once-in-a-decade opportunity.”
The Leviathan Field, 130 kilometres off the Israeli coast and under 5,000 feet of water, is a potential game changer not just for the country’s economy – the third-largest in the Middle East – but in shaping broader regional dynamics.
Houston-based Noble Energy along with Israeli conglomerate Delek Group and subsidiary Avner Oil Exploration are behind the exploitation of the field expected to produce initial volumes of 750 million cubic feet per day when it opens in 2016.
For Israel, a country once with little or no domestic energy resources, natural gas is set to become the beating heart of future energy plans.
Experts say gas from the nearby Tamar field, which opened this year, will meet domestic demand for the next 25 years, acting as Israel’s “safety net” and leaving Leviathan free for export markets.
Israel’s energy minister said in June the Jewish state would keep more than half its estimated natural gas reserves for domestic production and there’s an ongoing national debate over whether the US$300-billion expected to be generated from recovered gas should be exported or used to safeguard the country’s descendants.
The argument for cashing in is a convincing one.
This month, Israel signed a memorandum of understanding with Greek Cyprus and Greece to cooperate on energy, binding Israel and Cyprus together over Leviathan, a section of which is located in Cypriot waters. Israel also began talks this week with other regional interests, including Turkey, about constructing a pipeline to pump gas to Europe.
But aside from the spritely arguments inside Israel, regional anxieties may become a sticking point as it attempts to unlock two main options to get gas to lucrative markets.
Having aligned with Cyprus, any proposal to build a pipeline with Turkish assistance appears somewhat remote. Tensions have been high between Turkey and Greek Cyprus ever since the former’s invasion and occupation of northern Cyprus in 1974.
Israel, Saudis Fear Obama's "Soft Blow" for Syria May Be Precedent for Iran
As plans for a US attack on Syria gained momentum, Israel this week embarked on a partial call-up of essential reservists and deployed the widest range ever of its three-tiered missile defense system.
Wednesday, Aug. 28, reserve members of IDF missile and anti-air units – including the teams attached to the Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome systems – were mobilized, as well as air force, intelligence and home defense personnel.
Missile interceptor batteries were spread out at strategic and heavily-populated points on the Israeli map – from northern areas within range of Syrian and Lebanon, to the southern regions abutting Egypt and Gaza. Regular army leaves, especially in the Northern Command, were cancelled for the coming weekend and the two-day Jewish New Year festival starting Wednesday night, Sept. 4.
Air raid shelters were unlocked and made ready in the big cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa.
That was one aspect of life in Israel in the shadow of a projected Western punitive operation against Syria for using chemical weapons against its people on Aug. 21.
But there was another aspect: It was the message delivered day and night in unison by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, backed by a chorus of senior government ministers: This message informed the public that Israel is not involved in Syria’s civil conflict or US plans for military intervention in that conflict.
Therefore, expectations of Syria retaliating against Israel for this intervention are extremely low.
In any case, Bashar Assad must realize that if he did, he would rue the day because Israel would hit back hard.
Israel renders assistance to rebels in southern Syria
This message does not represent the real picture because it omits three facts:
1. Israel is secretly involved in the Syrian war. In the southern sector, Israel has carved out two buffer enclaves where rebel forces receive military and intelligence assistance from the Israel Defense Forces, as well as food and medical aid.
This project is totally blacked out, except when wounded Syrian rebel fighters – numbered so far in scores – cross into Israel from those enclaves and are admitted to Israel hospitals for treatment.
2. Israel via the US has guaranteed Jordan’s King Abdullah an IDF Air Force fighter craft and missile shield in the event of a Syrian attack on his kingdom. Some of Israel’s contacts with rebel units based in southern Syria go through Jordan.
Israel and Jordan have signed a military air relations pact permitting Israeli bombers and fighters to transit Jordanian air space to reach Syria.
3. As we reported in a separate article in this issue, President Barack Obama requested and obtained from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a secret commitment to react with restraint to a minor Syrian or Hizballah missile attack – or not at all.
This deal has given Israeli leaders the confidence to assert that Israel is not in for major reprisals for a US strike on Syria.
Is US lenience with Syria cause for concern over Iran
Their calculations may work in the very short term. But they don’t answer either of Israel’s two long-term strategic concerns, in the view of DEBKA Weekly's Mideast and military experts.
They neglect the overriding threat looming over Israel’s head from Iran.
In the nearly three-year Syrian conflict, Israel pursued certain actions for disbanding – or, at least, weakening - the Tehran-Damascus-Hizballah alliance. This objective, which motivated its air strikes on Iranian weapons bound for Hizballah through Syria, was not achieved.
On the contrary, the flow of Shiite fighters into Syria from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon – including regular Hizballah militia units – swelled in the spring of this year. Many of these Shiite militants have taken up positions uncomfortably close to Israel’s borders.
A potent Shiite military machine rising in the Middle East is the last thing Israel needs.
As for Iran, Israel must ask itself an intensely disturbing question: If the US is not prepared to launch forceful and decisive action against Bashar Assad, even after he went to the extreme length of using chemical weapons against his own citizens, how can Israeli rely on the Obama administration to eradicate the still more lethal weapon of mass destruction, the nuclear weapon taking shape in Iran?
Israel, Saudis fear Obama will treat nuclear Iran like chemical Syria
By failing to address the Syrian chemical threat with severity, Washington is giving Iran the confidence to continue building a nuclear bomb, and even carry out nuclear tests, without fear of hindrance from the United States.
Israel can’t be sure it has been let in on all of Washington’s military plans for intervention in Syria or been forewarned of what lies ahead after its launch. The Israeli military command has therefore taken precautionary measures against possible surprises.
Iran is however a more complicated matter.
Saudi Arabia is just as prone as Israel to concerns over the Obama administration’s approach to the fast-moving potential of a nuclear Iran.
This concern has been translated into Syrian terms. In this regard, DEBKA Weekly's Middle East sources point out that Saudi Arabia is more favorably placed strategically than Israel.
Saudis steer their own ship in Syria
The Israeli share in the war on the Assad regime is limited to small corners of southern Syria and a handful of rebel units, whereas Saudi penetration of the conflict is massive, encompassing intelligence control of many rebel militias.
Riyadh is therefore armed with enough clout for developing its own role in the Syrian conflict. And indeed, the head of Saudi General Intelligence, Prince Bandar bin Sultan and his right-hand lieutenant Adel A. al-Jubeir have carved out an independent Syrian policy separate from that of the Obama administration.
When the White House and Pentagon began weighing a military response to the chemical attack in Syria, the Saudis then and there broke off relations with rebel militia chiefs and opposition elements attached to the Americans, and set about building a separate Saudi military operational arm in Syria away from US influence.
French President Francois Hollande gave a boost Friday to US hopes of forging an international coalition for possible strikes against Syria after British lawmakers rejected any involvement in military action.
The White House had signalled Thursday that President Barack Obama, guided by the "best interests" of the United States, was ready to go it alone on Syria after deadly chemical weapons attacks last week. But Russia, the Syrian regime's most powerful ally, warned any military strikes would "deal a serious blow to the entire system of world order".
UN arms experts began a final day of inspections of the sites of the suspected gas attacks before they leave the war-battered country on Saturday to report their findings to UN chief Ban Ki-moon.
Faced with an impasse at the UN Security Council and the British parliament's shock rejection of any punitive action against the Syrian regime, the United States has been forced to look elsewhere for international partners.
While Germany and Canada ruled out joining any military strikes, Hollande - whose country was a strident opponent of the war on Iraq, but which under Hollande embarked on a military intervention of its own in worn-torn Mali - said the British vote would not affect his government's stance.
"France wants firm and proportionate action against the Damascus regime," Hollande said in an interview with Le Monde newspaper, hinting an attack was possible by Wednesday.
US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said the White House respected the British vote and that it was still seeking an "international coalition that will act together against Syria's regime.
"We are continuing to consult with the British as with all of our allies. That consultation includes ways forward together on a response to this chemical weapons attack in Syria," he said in the Philippines.
The British rejection also came after the failure of an 11th-hour effort by British diplomats to win UN backing for action against President Bashar al-Assad's regime at a meeting of the permanent members of the Security Council.
"It is clear to me that the British parliament, reflecting the views of the British people, does not want to see British military action. I get that and the government will act accordingly," Cameron said.
His government was defeated by just 13 votes in its bid for a "strong humanitarian response" to Syria's alleged use of chemical weapons against its own people in the August 21 attacks.
Key Syrian allies Russia and Iran have warned against any Western intervention, saying it risked sparking a wider conflict in the already volatile Middle East.
But the military buildup was continuing in the region regardless, while in Damascus the mood was heavy with fear as security forces make preparations for possible air bombardments.
US warships armed with scores of cruise missiles are converging on the eastern Mediterranean, and US military officials have said they are ready to launch a powerful barrage against regime targets.
US National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said Obama's decision-making "will be guided by what is in the best interests of the United States.
"He believes that there are core interests at stake for the United States and that countries who violate international norms regarding chemical weapons need to be held accountable," she said.
Envoys from the permanent Security Council members - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - met Thursday for the second time since Britain proposed a draft resolution to permit "all necessary measures" to protect Syrian civilians, but no breakthrough was reported.
Earlier in the week, reports had suggested a Western strike was imminent, but questions have been raised about the quality of the intelligence linking Assad to the gas attack.
Some members of Congress voiced support for limited, surgical strikes, while urging transparency from the administration and continued close consultations.
"It is clear that the American people are weary of war. However, Assad gassing his own people is an issue of our national security, regional stability and global security. We must be clear that the United States rejects the use of chemical weapons by Assad or any other regime," said Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader in the House.
Assad's ally and main arms supplier Russia has blocked all attempts to toughen sanctions against Damascus or authorise outside force to punish or unseat the regime.
Deputy Russian Prime Minister Gennady Gatilov said Friday his government opposes any resolution "indicating the probability of the use of force" or "that could be used for military action against Syria".
Syria is in the 29th month of a vicious civil war in which more than 100,000 people have died and about three million more have become refugees or displaced, according to UN figures.
As the stand-off continued, the team of UN inspectors were in the final day of their investigations into the gas attacks that activists say killed more than 350 people, including women and children.
A UN spokesman said Thursday that the team had collected "considerable" evidence and will brief the UN secretary general soon after they leave Syria on Saturday.
Ban has appealed for the inspectors to be allowed to complete their work before the major powers decide any follow-up action.
Assad, whose regime strongly denies using chemical weapons and instead blames "terrorist" rebels, has remained defiant in the face of the threats.
"Syria will defend itself in the face of any aggression," he said on Thursday, vowing "victory" for his people.
Meanwhile, responding to threats by Syrian officials that the regime or its proxies will retaliate to a western attack by striking Israel, the Iron Dome missile defense system was deployed in Tel Aviv on Friday, as part of a wide range of security preparations, according to reports.
A federal appeals court on Thursday upheld the nation’s first-of-its-kind law in California prohibiting health practitioners from offering psychotherapy aimed at making gay youth straight.
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco ruled that the state’s ban on so-called conversion therapy for minors doesn’t violate the free speech rights of licensed counselors and patients seeking treatment.
The activities of pastors and lay counselors who are unlicensed but provide such therapy through church programs would not be covered under the law.
The case before the appeals court was brought by professionals who practice sexual-orientation change therapy, two families who say their teenage sons benefited from it, and a national association of Christian mental health counselors. They argued the ban infringes on their free speech and freedom of association and religious rights. The counselors also argue it jeopardizes their livelihoods.
However, in a 3-0 ruling, the court panel held that California has the power to prohibit licensed mental health providers from administering therapies deemed harmful, and the fact that speech may be used to carry out those therapies does not turn such bans into prohibitions of speech.
By Thursday August 29, it was clear that even when President Barack Obama does finally decides to order a US military strike on Syria for waging chemical warfare on its citizens, it is likely to be extremely restrained and limited.
By promising to pull his punches, US President Obama gave America’s rivals the upper hand in their bout over Syria - even before the punch was delivered – which according to most estimates will happen either Friday night, early Saturday, Aug. 31 or after Labor Day on Sept. 2.
Not only Bashar Assad, but also Russian President Vladimir Putin were already crowing. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Revolutionary Guards chiefs recalled they had been saying for years that the United States is a paper tiger and would not dare attack their country’s nuclear facilities.
Most of this issue is devoted to exclusive reports from DEBKA Weekly's military, intelligence, Washington, Moscow and Tehran sources on the complicated efforts made by President Obama – first to convince the world that large-scale US military intervention Syria was imminent, and then to use the spreading war scare to startle Tehran into jumping into direct diplomacy with Washington.
To lure his object, the US president gave ground step by step on the coming military operation, insisting it was still undecided - while at the same time progressively winding down its potential scale and virulence.
US package for Russia starts with softened strike on Syria
The quibbling over the legality of a military operation against Israel at home and among US allies - without a UN mandate or an incriminating report from the US team of chemical experts - gave Obama extra headwind for procrastinating.
He played for time while his envoys were busy. Under cover of massive US military preparations for action against Syria and the war alerts declared by armies across the Middle East and half of Europe, those envoys were engaged in intensive backdoor diplomatic moves, which are revealed hereunder by DEBKA Weekly:
1. US Secretary of State John Kerry launched a secret give-and-take dialogue – which is still ongoing - with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He has been reporting directly to Putin without so far obtaining his consent to the package proposed by Kerry, whereby the US with Moscow’s nod would downgrade its projected military strike on Syria and make it almost painless.
Only the Syrian units directly involved in the poison gas attack against a suburb east of Damascus on Aug. 21 would be targeted. The bulk of the Syrian armed forces would remain untouched.
2. There would be no attempt to harm President Assad, his family, his regime heads or his Syrian military chiefs.
No more than 10-15 Tomahawks to be launched
3. The "strike" would be short, a one-time incident taking no more than an hour or two.
4. As soon as it was over, Washington and Moscow would announce they had agreed to jointly convene a second Geneva Conference to hammer out a solution for ending the Syrian civil war. The US would let Assad or his chosen delegates take their seat at the table.
5. Russian officials, seeking to clarify the meaning of a “limited strike,” were given the following picture from US officials:
It would not entail air force activity against Syria – only Tomahawk “land-attack” cruise missiles fired from destroyers out at sea.
DEBKA Weekly's military sources note that by spilling out this information in advance, the Obama administration gave Russia and Syria the chance to set up Russian missile interceptor systems already present in Syria or beefing them up with additional batteries that could be delivered in days.
6. When the Russians asked how many Tomahawks the Americans had in mind, they were told, "It won't be dozens of missiles. 10-15 missiles will be fired in all."
This American reply was beamed straight from Moscow to Damascus. It enabled Syrian foreign minister Walid Moallem to use his press conference in Damascus on Tuesday August 27, to publicly sneer at the threatened US military attack, by likening it to the shelling routinely withstood by Damascus and other Syrian cities.
Assad to come out smiling, Netanyahu’s hands are tied
In the next item in this issue, our military sources discuss the "military achievements" the US may expect from a low-key strike by no more than 15 Tomahawk missiles. It is already obvious that the Syrian armed forces and infrastructure will not suffer substantial damage and Assad’s position will remain unshaken.
7. The US president made sure that Israel would not get in the way of his plans by procuring from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a secret commitment that Israel would not retaliate for a couple of Syrian missiles or, at most, adjust its response to the low scale of the American strike.
(More about Israel’s position in a separate item.)
8. Obama’s other diplomatic efforts this week focused heavily on Tehran.
He sent two emissaries – one from UN center in New York and the other from a Gulf emirate - with a special proposition for Ayatollah Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani.
The US would keep its strike on Syria low-key and guarantee Bashar Assad’s survival in power. There would be no moves against the Tehran-Damascus-Hizballah alliance or challenges to Iran’s dominant influence in Syria and Lebanon. For all these concessions, President Obama expected to be rewarded by Iran’s consent to resume direct nuclear talks with Washington.