When the clashes between Egyptian security forces and pro-Morsi protesters were at their peak in Cairo Wednesday, Aug. 14 – 525 dead and 3,700 wounded to date - President Barack Obama put in a call to Egypt’s strongman, Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sissi, debkafile’s intelligence sources report. The US president wanted to give the general a dressing-down much on the lines of the call he made to former president Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 at the high point of the Arab Spring Tahrir Sq demonstrations against his rule, namely: Stop repressing the protesters and firing live ammunition. Step down!
When Mubarak asked for a three or four days’ grace to break up the massed rally, Obama shot back that he has to quit NOW!
And indeed, on Feb. 11, the army announced the president’s resignation.
Realizing what was coming, Gen. El-Sissi decided not to accept President Obama’s call, our sources report. The Egyptian officials who received it informed the US president politely that the right person for him to address was Egypt’s interim president Adly Mansour and they would be glad to transfer the call to him. The White House callers declined.
This anecdote shows that the military strongman is not only determined to avoid the pitfalls which brought Mubarak down but is equally determined to keep the US administration from interfering in his plans for driving the Muslim Brotherhood out of Egyptian politics.
Diplomatic condemnation of those plans is building up inWestern capitals. Wednesday night, the Obama White House issued a statement strongly condemning “the use of violence against protesters in Egypt” and the state of emergency. Egyptian ambassadors in Paris, London and Berlin received denunciations and expressions of concern from their host governments, and Turkey demanded a UN Security Council emergency session on the situation in Egypt.
debkafile’s sources report that harsh international condemnation of Gen. El-Sissi’s crackdown will do more harm than good. The backlash will come in three forms:
1. The Muslim Brotherhood will be encouraged to pursue increasingly extreme measures to fight the Egyptian army in the expectation of international applause.
2. The generals will be encouraged to escalate their steps for repressing the Brotherhood.
3. The Saudis and the Gulf Emirates will redouble their support for the Egyptian general and his campaign against the Brotherhood. This will widen the rift between those Arab rulers and the Obama administration.
Our intelligence sources also disclose that, while President Obama was trying to get through to Gen. El-Sissi, the general was on the phone with Prince Bandar, Director of Saudi Intelligence.
On July 31, Bandar arrived in Moscow and was immediately received by President Vladimir Putin for a conversation that lasted four hours. The Saudi prince next received an invitation to visit Washington at his earliest convenience and meet with President Obama.
Bandar has still not responded to that invitation.
Clearly, the US president’s problem with the Egyptian situation is a lot more complicated than pulling the army off the Muslim Brotherhood’s backs. He needs to somehow snap the strategic alliance unfolding between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the rapport between the Egyptian general and the Saudi prince.
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Clashes between the Egyptian military and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood left scores dead and hundreds injured this week, and Middle East expert Dr. Mike Evans says the turmoil will eventually lead to an Egyptian civil war.
He also blasted the Obama administration for its handling of Egypt and the Israeli-Palestinian crisis and predicted an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear program very soon.
Evans is a longtime Middle East scholar and is a decades-long friend of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He told WND radical Islamic elements will keep fighting for their cause and that almost certainly means much more misery for Egypt.
“You’ll have civil war, ultimately, in Egypt. There’s no question about it,” he said. “It’s not over yet. This is a battle for Islam. It’s not about Democracy. It never was.”
He said the fight is really between radical Sunni and Shiite elements, both of whom want to establish a Middle East caliphate. He said the Shiites want to have Iran as the anchor of the caliphate, and Sunnis were hoping to have their base in a Muslim Brotherhood-controlled Egypt.
Millions of Egyptians took to the streets to demand the removal of Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government in June and early July. The military responded by removing Morsi from power July 3. But while popular sentiment seems to be on the side of the military, Evans said the Muslim Brotherhood is very skilled at molding public opinion.
“About one-third of the population is uneducated and another two-thirds are unemployed. About 60 percent of the population are young people. The mullahs and madrassas are emboldening them and dumbing them down. It’s a real problem,” said Evans, who fears greatly for the Christian population in Egypt.
“They’re in the crosshairs,” he said. “It’s the same way in the Palestinian territories. They’re hated, they’re despised, they’re considered aligned with the West. It’s a battle.”
Evans is also rolling his eyes over the latest U.S. efforts to foster peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. The initial round consists of low-level talks set up by Secretary of State John Kerry.
“You’ve got John Kerry on his white horse, trying to save the day by forcing Israel to release terrorists and make peace with the Palestinians, who don’t want peace,” Evans said. “Netanyahu told me personally that there’s things he would not allow: territories, treaties, an army or airspace. In order for the Palestinians to have a state, they have to have treaties. They have to have an army. They’ve got to have airspace. The prime minister will never ever give that up. It’s just not going to happen.
“It’s wrong for Kerry to come in there and give them false expectations, because when he does that he gets people killed. They revert back to the terror card and Jews die,” he said.
So how would Evans sum up the Obama administration’s performance on Middle East policy?
“Barack Obama is Jimmy Carter on steroids. Clinton had it right when he said it was a fairy tale. He doesn’t have any comprehension of what he’s trying to sell. He wants Islam to have their equal rights. He doesn’t understand what they will do with those equal rights,” Evans said.
The Iranian nuclear program is still hanging over the region and the world as well. Evans said covert Israeli activity caused quite a bit of delay in Iran. Despite that, he said Iran is a “screwdriver away from going nuclear.” As a result, he said Israel will soon be forced to take pre-emptive action.
“Israel’s going to do it. Israel will be the U.S. proxy. They’re going to have to do the attack. What Israel’s hoping for is the United States will give them backup for retaliatory targets. There are about 1,100 hard targets that have to be taken out,” said Evans, who believes the U.S. will provide that support. But he’s convinced the Israeli attack is only a matter of time.
“Everything is on for the attack. It’s going to happen. Something very significant has to happen to stop it,” he said. “It’s definitely on the calendar.”
The Egyptian army has sealed the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip by blocking the border exit to Egyptian Sinai through the Gaza crossing. DEBKAfile: Its objective is to prevent Muslim Brotherhood fugitives harbored in the Gaza Strip from escaping and those heading for Gaza reaching their destination.