Looking for His glorious appearing! Titus 2:13

U.S. Drone Escapes Attack Over Hormuz. Syria Threatens to Bomb Lebanon. Russian Marines Dock in Beirut
Mar 15th, 2013
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Middle East tensions are spiraling sharply six days before US President Barack Obama lands in the Middle East. Thursday night, March 14, an Iranian fighter jet tried to bring down a US Predator drone flying over Oman, i.e. the Straits of Hormuz - only to be warned off by flares from its US fighter escort.

This was not the first time a US drone was threatened by Iranian aircraft over the Persian Gulf, but in reporting the incident, the Pentagon revealed that the drones flying in the neighborhood of Iranian shores are now escorted by US jet fighters.
A couple of hours earlier that evening, debkafile received an exclusive report from its military sources that the Syrian high command had just issued an ultimatum, on the orders of Bashar Assad, demanding that the Lebanese government put an immediate stop to the passage of armed Sunni fighters from Lebanon into Syria, else the Syrian Air Force would strike the Lebanese intruders’ convoys and also their home bases. Damascus claimed they were coming to fight the government alongside the al Qaeda-linked Jabrat al-Nusra.

Their incursion threatened to engender a major spillover of the Syrian conflict into Lebanon.
The danger of hostilities inching close to the Syrian port of Tartus, where Moscow maintains a naval base, decided the Russian Navy to instruct three warships carrying 700 marines to Tartus to change course and put in at Beirut instead.

The Shiite Pincer Movement to Contain Sunni Spread in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq
Mar 15th, 2013
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

The radical Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr arrived in Beirut Monday, March 11, with a party of lawmakers from the parliamentary bloc he heads. One of his aides told the National Iraqi News Agency that al-Sadr would confer with the Lebanese officials dealing with the Syrian crisis and discuss its impact on Iraq.
This scarcely-noticed event brings out in the open the increasingly vital role played by paramilitary forces and sectarian militias in the expanding Syrian conflict.
The Mahdi Army, the militia headed by this extremist Shiite cleric, first gained prominence by its failed revolts against the US forces after the 2003 invasion. A less known fact is that Hizballah’s late security chief, Imad Mughniyeh (assassinated in Damascus in 2008), designed the Iraqi Shiite Mahdi Army on the model of the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah and, through 2003 to 2005, established its offshoots in
the Shiite cities of southern Iraq and Baghdad’s quarters.
In those years, Al Sadr kept his ties with Hizballah under cover. For his secret meetings with Hizballah’s secretary Hassan Nasrallah, he would travel to Tehran, the home ground of their shared patron, Iran.

The Iraqi turning-point in the Syrian conflict

Eight years later, in March 2013, the Iraqi cleric is meeting openly with Nasrallah in Beirut for the first time, evidence of how much water has flown under the bridges of the Middle East in the intervening years and how far the Mahdi Army has spread its wings into foreign conflicts.
Today, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources reveal, entire Mahdi Army brigades, each 300-400-strong, are fighting alongside Hizballah to save the Assad regime in Syria.
Other Mahdi brigades are stationed in Lebanon as a strategic reserve in case the Hizballah leader needs help against Sunni military aggression.
Al-Sadr’s open visit to Beirut was authorized by Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, head the Revolutionary Guards Al Qods Force. Tehran had no qualms about betraying the fact that radical Iraqi Shiites are fighting for Bashar Assad in Syria and closely committed to Hizballah in Lebanon.
It was not by chance that the Sadr visit to Beirut was revealed on March 11, the day that Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for killing 48 Syrian soldiers and agents in a battle last week on Iraqi soil.
Al Qaeda stated that the presence of Syrian troops in Iraq attested to collusion between the Shiite-led Nuri al-Maliki government in Baghdad and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The incident was first presented in this way: Unidentified gunmen last week attacked a convoy of Syrians who had fled across the border into Iraq from a Syrian rebel advance, and were being escorted back home through the western province of Anbar, Iraq's Sunni Muslim heartland.
According to a statement posted online by al Qaeda's Iraqi wing, Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), “Military detachments succeeded in annihilating an entire column of the Safavid army.” (The Safavid dynasty ruled Shiite Iran from the 16th to 18th centuries.)
“The lions of the desert and the men entrusted with difficult missions laid ambushes on the road leading to the crossing," said Iraqi al Qaeda. The group said the presence of the Syrians in Iraq showed the Baghdad government's "firm cooperation" with Assad.

A straight knock-down Sunni-Shiite sectarian fight

These two events in the second week of March exposed five major offshoots of the Syrian war, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and counterterrorism sources report:
1. Its predicted spillover effect has strongly and substantially reached Lebanon and Iraq;
2. Shiite armed strength is advancing in a pincer movement to maintain the continuous military links forged between Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut and to block the parallel Sunni and al Qaeda drive to encircle Maliki’s Shiite-dominated regime in Baghdad.
3. The Syrian war is metamorphosing into a straight knock-down fight between Sunni and Shiite sectarian forces for domination of the Muslim Arab world.
4. The incident in Iraq which ended fatally for a Syrian military column shows Iraqi, Syrian and Lebanese Shiite forces already battling Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis for terrain.
(See a separate item in this issue on the Sunni Crescent).
5. In Iraq, Sunnis, Shiites, Al-Qaeda and Kurds are also vying violently for the domination of land.
One of the oddities of this unfolding tangle of conflicts is the recruitment of Christian militias to fight for Bashar Assad. The Syrian-Iranian military command has placed Christian militiamen alongside Iraqi and Lebanese Shiite brigades to make up for the shortcomings of the regular Syrian army.
According to some sources, some 70 percent of the army is not taking part in combat because their loyalty to Assad is in question.
The appearance of Shiite and Christian combatants on the battlefield, as fresh fighting strength to eke out the exhausted and depleted Syrian military ranks, has taken the Syrian rebels aback with a new and unforeseen challenge.

Tehran Wonders: Does the Removal of U.S. Carriers Portend Israel’s “One - Night Operation?”
Mar 15th, 2013
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Today's Headlines;The Nation Of Israel;Contemporary Issues

Although Tehran achieved its long ambition with the departure last week of the last US carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, remaining in Gulf waters, Iran remained suspicious of Washington’s intentions - especially when it happened shortly after the announcement that the USS Harry Truman’s departure was delayed by US defense spending cuts.
A decade ago, the United States maintained seven aircraft carriers with strike groups in Persian Gulf waters on hand for the invasion of Iraq.
None are left.
Iran should therefore feel safe. However, military strategists tend to dig for ulterior motives behind any enemy action. So the disappearance of the proudest vessels of the US Navy from its waters is read by some in Tehran as meaning just the opposite to what it seems, a feint behind which Washington is in fact getting ready to attack Iran very soon, or at least back an imminent Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities.

Tehran is not convinced that war has receded

Those Iranian pessimists find support for their view in a number of arguments:
1. The withdrawal of the aircraft carriers from the Gulf strengthens rather than refuting the assumption of a coming war, they suspect because, if hostilities do erupt, US military chiefs would want to save those high-profile vessels from being trapped in the narrow Persian Gulf, at the mercy of Iranian sea-to-sea missiles and explosive speedboats and unable to maneuver to safety from reprisals.
2. The absence of these mammoth targets for retaliation close by does not remove the threat of attack, it is said in Tehran. It will simply force Iran to make the extra effort and assume the added risk of going after US military and naval facilities based in Gulf countries.
Tehran would face hard decisions over which of its neighbors to attack first, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai or even Jordan.
In this regard, Iranian strategists note that Washington has made no secret of its deployment of 60 US Air Force fighter-bombers at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and Camp Arifijan in Kuwait – equal to the number of warplanes sitting on the decks of the absentee Ronald Reagan.

What is meant by a one-night Israeli operation?

Fighter-bomber jets taking off from dry land do not have the same operational flexibility as aircraft taking off from, and landing on, floating ship’s decks. However, the Obama administration was clearly anxious to demonstrate to its allies in Riyadh, Qatar, Dubai and the rest of the Gulf that US air power in their vicinity has not been reduced and the carriers’ exit has not changed US operational capabilities.
Those allies do not appear to be convinced.
3. Tehran has never given much credence to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's declared deadline of late spring-early summer 2013 for striking the Iranian nuclear program.
But they are scratching their heads over former Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin’s comment in the last week of February that Israel could eliminate Iran’s nuclear program in a one-night operation.
They are trying to puzzle out what he meant. Iranian strategists don’t see how Israel could achieve this complicated feat in a day – least of all in a single dark night.
Still, Tehran is working on its response in case the withdrawal of US carriers leaves the field open for an Israeli attack. Decisions must be made on the nature and scope of that response. Should it come in the form of a massive ballistic missile attack or a more moderate reprisal? And can the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah be pressed into proxy action in the light of the complicated situation in Syria?

Russia’s Dilemma: to Supply Assad With
Mar 15th, 2013
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

When a country’s ruler and military are willing to give up one-third of their national territory, this usually means one thing: They are short of sufficient ground, air and naval forces to defend and hold it against an enemy.
This is what is happening to Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Last week, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources say, he let the Horan, the Golan, Mount Hermon and Har Dov – the Western Syrian regions bordering on Jordan, Syria and southern Lebanon – go to the insurgents, except for a few scattered strongholds.
This week, Assad gave up the entire Euphrates River valley to a rebel force and, in the wake of previous withdrawals from the Kurdish regions, ceded most of eastern Syria's border areas with Iraq.
He was driven to this juncture by several causes:
1. Although the 350,000-strong Syrian army remains formally loyal to the president, he and his military chiefs believe they can realistically trust no more than 70,000 men to fight for the regime.
At the same time, although Assad can’t count on three-quarters of his army’s allegiance, he still has to find the money to feed them every day and pay their wages lest they go over to the rebels. The full army complement has therefore become a millstone around his neck.

Assad decides to fight for Syria’s “backbone,” give up the rest

2. Because the remaining 70,000 troops are not up to holding the entire country, or even defend places recaptured from the rebels, the Syrian ruler, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources report, has cut his holdings down to the "Syria's backbone." This is a narrow, 2,500-square kilometer strip enclosed by Daraa in the south, Damascus in the southeast, Hama and Homs in the center, Latakia and Tartus in the Mediterranean coastal west, most of the big city of Aleppo, and parts of Idlib province in the northern borderland adjoining Turkey.
He has simply and ruthlessly written off all the towns, villages, highways, railroads, airports, military and civilian centers, including some strategic industries such as electricity and water, no longer willing to allot a single battalion of 300 soldiers to defending them.
3. A standoff has developed between the Syrian army and the rebels in the sense that, while Assad no longer has the resources for holding on to the essential utilities supplying water, electricity and food, neither do the rebels have the numbers for capturing them. They also realize that attacking these strategic facilities would deprive both sides of the essentials of existence
4. Assad’s overriding concern at the moment, according to our military and intelligence sources, is his shrinking air force on which he counted to make up for the shortage of men on the ground.

Assad bids for Russian helicopters for his depleted air force

The Syrian air fleet of 600 war planes and helicopters of different types has been pared down by constant action to no more than 200 serviceable aircraft, whether by technical breakdowns, wear and tear or downing by rebel forces. While Syrian rebels are turning to the West for anti-aircraft missiles, the Syrian ruler can seek replenishments for his depleted air force from a single source – Moscow.
But the Russians have not been exactly forthcoming. In recent weeks, they delivered a few dozen YAK-130 training planes for use against rebel-held urban areas. They proved to be easy prey for rebel anti-aircraft weapons.
This week Assad urgently appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin for two types of assault helicopters – the MI-24 and MI-25.
The Mi-24 (NATO code name: Hindi) is a large helicopter gunship, attack helicopter and low-capacity troop transport with room for eight passengers. Dubbed by Russian pilots the "flying tank", it is more commonly nicknamed "Crocodile" for its camouflage design, or "Glass" for the flat glass plates encasing the cockpit and making the copter hard to hit from the ground.
The Mi-25 Hind D helicopter gunship was used by the Soviet Red Army to savage Islamist mujahidin guerrillas in the 1979-89 Afghanistan war - until the Americans gave the Islamists Stingers to shoot them down.

Washington to Moscow: Think twice before acceding to Assad

Assad and his military planners calculate that large numbers of these attack helicopters could compensate for the Syrian army’s dwindling manpower resources.
Getting the Russians to supply them is another matter.
The Obama administration knows about the Damascus-Moscow exchanges regarding the helicopters because the Russians share some of this sort of information with Washington, under the secret cooperation deal sealed by President Barack Obama and Putin on Syria.
Washington sent back an intelligence assessment whereby, short of an extreme battlefield reversal - or altered situations in the Assad regime and rebel leadership, the rebels will by the coming summer be able to breach the defense lines of Damascus and seize and hold half the capital, just as they are now doing in Aleppo.
The Kremlin is therefore advised by the White House to take this into account before reaching a final decision on whether to let the Syrian ruler have the helicopters he wants.

Let the Headlines Speak
Mar 15th, 2013
Daily NewsFrom the Internet
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

New York Earthquake May Have Caused Mysterious Boom
An earthquake in upstate New York could be to blame for the mysterious house-shaking boom that residents across Tiverton, Little Compton and Westport reported feeling on Wednesday night. At approximately 8:40 p.m. on Wednesday, March 13, residents across the region dialed 911 to inform their local police station of a strange, earth-shaking phenomenon.

Pope Francis Coat Of Arms Explained
The new Pope has released his new coat of arms and it speaks volumes on his belief motives and interests. Although he is sworn by Jesuit oath to an atrocious warlike obedience...

Pope Francis -- Against the West?
On redistribution — "Is he a conservative, or a Great Society liberal who will push the 'social gospel'?" — the new pope passes with honors. He has a simple apartment, rides the bus and lives among the Buenos Aires poor. But on the "social issues" — "Is Pope Francis a progressive who will move the Church to a more 'tolerant' view of abortion and same-sex marriage?" — the disappointment of the media elite was evident. Pope Francis adheres to orthodox Catholic teaching that abortion is the killing of an unborn child entailing automatic excommunication for all involved. He has denounced same-sex marriage and regards homosexual adoptions as a crime against children.

New Zealand North Island hit by worst drought in 30 years
A drought has been declared on the entire North Island of New Zealand - in what the government describes as the worst dry spell in 30 years. Farmers are especially hard hit, with losses in agriculture expected to shave about 1% off economic growth. The capital Wellington is said to have just 18 days of water left, and parts of the South Island could soon be hit.

ICE chief acknowledges more than 2,000 illegal immigrants released, including drunken drivers
The top U.S. immigration enforcement official acknowledged Thursday that the Obama administration has in fact released thousands of illegal immigrants from local jails over the last month despite prior claims that the release was only in the hundreds. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director John Morton, at a House appropriations subcommittee hearing, said the agency released a total of 2,228 illegal immigrants from local jails "throughout the country" between Feb. 9 and March 1 for "solely budgetary reasons."

New pope urges Church to return to its Gospel roots
Pope Francis urged the Catholic Church on Thursday to stick to its Gospel roots and shun modern temptations, warning that it would become just another charitable group if it forgot its true mission.

Pakistani activist for poor shot dead in Karachi
Gunmen shot and killed a pioneering Pakistani activist in Karachi who helped bring services like sewer and water to the city's poorest neighborhoods, a police official said. The killing was a sign of the escalating chaos that has gripped Pakistan's largest city.

Obama reaches out to China's new president
Obama, beginning his second term as Xi embarks on his first, congratulated his new opposite number in the crucial US-China relationship, and announced the dispatch of two senior cabinet lieutenants to Beijing shortly.

A closer look at the Higgs boson
Scientists working at the world's biggest atom smasher near Geneva have announced they are confident that the new subatomic particle discovered last summer is a version of the long-sought Higgs boson. The particle bears key attributes of the so-called "God particle" that was theorized nearly a half-century ago as fundamental to the creation of the universe. It took thousands of scientists from around the world to hunt the particle in the atom-smasher operated by CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research.

CME IMPACT
As expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on March 15th at approximately 0500 UT. The impact was weak, but conditions for geomagnetic storming could develop as Earth passes through the CME's wake. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on March 15th and 16th.

Sun Burps Up Two CMEs In Less That 12 Hours
Earlier this week the sun twice ejected large amounts of solar material during two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in a 12-hour period, according to a NASA report. The CMEs are not expected to significantly impact Earth.

Intelligence chief: Assad ready to use chemical weapons
Aviv Kochavi says Islamist groups on Israel’s borders are veering away from global jihad and toward ‘local jihad’

N.Korea 'Under Cyber Attack'
North Korea has fallen victim to a massive cyber attack since Wednesday morning, a senior South Korean government official said. He added Seoul is trying to find out who is behind

A Man's Journey From Nepal To Texas Triggers Global TB Scramble
We don't know too much about a Nepalese man who's in medical isolation in Texas while being treated for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, or XDR-TB, the most difficult-to-treat kind. Health authorities are keen to protect his privacy.

Al Qaeda’s Affiliate Brings Sharia Law to Eastern Syria
Mar 15th, 2013
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

Last minute: Bashar Assad ultimatum: Hundreds of Sunni militiamen who surged across the Lebanese border Thursday, March 14, in support of Islamist rebels were told to withdraw forthwith or else the Syrian Air Force would bomb them and their Lebanese bases.
This would be the first Syria air strike inside Lebanon.

If it were just up to Sheikh Moaz al-Khatib, leader of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, the talks between representatives of the Assad regime and the disparate Syrian opposition groups would have started as scheduled on March 5 in Moscow. By now, they would have been in their second week.
But at the very last minute, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources report, Qatar notified the Syrian sheikh that if he goes to Moscow for the talks, its assistance to the rebels would be cut off forthwith - especially the monetary deposits in Zagreb to pay for the new weapons supplies shipped in from the Balkans.
Like all aspects of the Syrian conflict, Qatar’s convoluted motives for torpedoing the Moscow negotiating track are obscure.
On the one hand, with every passing day, Iran's involvement in the war deepens, as does its influence in Damascus. Qatar ought therefore to have been most keen on keeping the Syrian rebels well armed, while at the same time bringing the war to an end with all possible speed.
It may be speculated that Washington was pushing Qatar from behind, but only if it turned out that President Barack Obama had decided to withdraw his endorsement from Russian President Vladmir Putin’s peace initiative out of reluctance to let him collect the kudos for ending the Syrian conflict.
However, there is nothing to support that theory. Indeed, Washington and Moscow still share a strong interest in a quick end to the conflict - so much so, that President Obama was willing to give diplomatic ground to Moscow to achieve this, and accept a back seat for himself and his new Secretary of State John Kerry.

Diplomacy stalled by Assad army’s Euphrates defeat

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources, the Moscow initiative was not stalled by diplomatic maneuvers so much as by Bashar Assad himself, in the light of the Syria army’s shock rout in the battle for the western bank of the Euphrates River in eastern Syria.
Holding on to that region and its key towns of Deir al-Azor and Abu Kemal was important enough for the Syrian ruler to throw into that campaign the Syrian army’s only reservist division, the Seventeenth.
The Euphrates region is the site of water and ground transport between Syria and Iraq. Against the 17^th Division, al Qaeda’s Syrian arm, Jabhat al-Nusra fielded its ace combatants. By early this week, large sections of Deir al-Azor and Abu Kemal had fallen into their hands and the remnants of the Syrian army division were in retreat toward the west.
This Islamist victory created a new geo-strategic situation in the region, handing al Qaeda and its affiliates an unbroken 1,000-kilometer long continuum linking the northern outskirts of the Iraqi town of Ramadi to the eastern suburbs of Damascus.
This strip also incorporates the Syrian sector of the divided Golan, a part of the Syrian border with Israel which is very close to falling under rebel control.
The fall of Abu Kamal opened the gateway for al Qaeda to push into Iraq’s central and western regions, including Anbar Province which abuts on Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The jihadists have therefore gained control of Iraq’s main highways to those frontiers and confronted Riyadh and Amman overnight with a new eastern front against al Qaeda.
Alarm was palpable in the private conversations of Saudi and Jordanian military chiefs this week, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report. They realized to their dismay that no physical barriers remained, nor could they muster trained military contingents capable of blocking a Syrian or Iraqi al Qaeda advance on their capital cities.

Al Qaeda brings strict Sharia law to eastern Syria – faces resistance

A senior Western officer familiar with the military situation in the border areas between the four countries – Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia – described the new stakeouts taking shape: Shiite forces have seized control of the areas and roads leading from central Iraq to Syria, whereas the Sunni Al-Qaeda rules a very large expanse of more than 120,000 square kilometers that sits athwart the traffic links connecting those four countries.
While Shiite forces backing Assad are digging themselves into strongholds in central and western Syria, Al-Qaeda at the head of the Syrian rebellion is tightining its grip on eastern Syria and western Iraq.
The latter’s Jubhat al-Nusra lost no time in trying to establish Islamist institutions and strict al Qaeda laws and norms in this part of Syria, stirring up local ire.
Thursday, March 15, the residents of al-Mayadeen went out on the streets to raise their voices in protest when a “Sharia Committee for the Eastern Regions” assumed the authority of local government overnight and handed out religious dictates.
A remnant of Syrian troops is still dug in at Qunaitra, the only Syrian Golan town, which is situated near the ceasefire line with Israel - although they seem to be fighting a losing battle. The rebels are attacking their positions and attempting to cut their supply lines.
Hundreds of rebels were also fighting Wednesday in a key area between Damascus and the Golan. As they surrounded the Khan Sheih barracks of elite Republican Guards and the Fourth Mechanized Division commanded by Gen. Maher Assad, the president’s brother, they took a pounding from multiple rocket launchers deployed on surrounding hills.

Al Qaeda Pounces With Renewed Vigor from Fortresses in Five Deserts
Mar 15th, 2013
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

Five world deserts are caught up in the flames of civil war and revolution besetting the Middle East and Africa: the vast Sahel belt and Sahara, the dunes of the Arabian Peninsula, the rugged wastes of Sinai and the Syrian-Iraq desert, scene of the raging Syrian conflict.
This is because the proactive Al Qaeda and its offshoots have made desert regions their current arenas of choice for three geo-strategic reasons:
1. These barren regions were found ideal for their campaign to bounce back from the damage wrought the jihadist movement by the loss of its leader, Osama bin Laden two years ago.
From those havens, his successor Ayman al-Zawahiri has seized the golden opportunity offered by the civil wars in Libya and Egypt (2011), Syria (2011-2012) and Iraq (2005-2013), the Arab Revolt and the policies of the Obama administration and NATO members, and turned it into a grab for power in Muslim capitals.
This drive generated the extraordinary flurry of activity shown in recent months by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula, Al-Qaeda in Syria-Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Al-Qaeda-led Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).
2. Discounted by the West as a shattered movement forced to retreat to far desert corners where they are easily picked off by US drones, al Qaeda also used its remote havens for setting up vast arms smuggling networks nourished by the revolutionary mayhem in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain.
High quality weapons systems now flow on an unprecedented scale to trouble spots in the Middle East, Africa and the Persian Gulf, including for the first time chemical weapons, surface-to-surface missiles, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Al Qaeda weapons stocks determine the outcome of wars

In short order, the five Al-Qaeda organizations procured a stock of tactical weapons comparable in size to many Middle East military arsenals. Their volume and quality give al Qaeda enough leverage to determine the outcome of ongoing armed conflicts. Primitive indigenous tribes of the desert “zones of silence” are empowered overnight by these smuggling networks with control over “roaring zones” which spit fire and threaten some of the world's richest countries, like Saudi Arabia.
3. Washington and the key NATO capitals of London, Paris and Rome, and the main Persian Gulf capitals – Riyadh, Doha and Dubai - can’t pretend they weren’t forewarned about the deleterious consequences of the Arab Revolt.
As early as the summer of 2011, the heavy weapons stocks piled up by the defeated Libyan ruler Muammar Qaddafi were grabbed by Touareg nomadic fighters from the Sahara as well as the Islamist tribes and militias of eastern Libyan Cyrenaica, which led the anti-Qaddafi revolt.
By diving into the weapons-smuggling labyrinth as suppliers of the Syrian rebel movement, the US and Qatar gave the five Al-Qaeda organizations added traction as pushers of the buttons controlling the smuggling traffic from their desert strongholds.
In this sense, the West and Arab rulers alike stood by as the five biggest desert regions of Africa and the Middle East were overrun by Al Qaeda organizations.

Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict spreads

The resurgence of al Qaeda’s jihad against the West is by now in full and shocking spate in one place after another. DEBKA-Net-Weekly's counterterrorism sources point to the turning-point in Benghazi where on Sept. 10, 2012, US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three aides were murdered; Al Qaeda’s revival in Egypt and near total domination of the Sinai Peninsula; Jabhat al-Nusra appearance as the most effective combat element of the anti-Assad Syrian rebel movement; the bloody hostage siege at the Algerian In Amenas natural gas plant in the Sahara; and the ascendancy of Ansar al-Sharia which defers directly to Zawahiri in eastern Libyan.
Were it not for French military intervention in January, al Qaeda and allies would have overrun the entire desert republic of Mali.
This turbulence is breaking out of its bounds and reviving four major “old” wars, so presaging the next chapter of the ongoing Arab Revolt in such places as:
Iraq: As the Syrian conflict begins its third year, neighboring Iraq is sliding into wide-ranging civil strife: Sunni Muslims and Kurds are carving out their own states in defiance of the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad and its Iranian wire-pullers;
Arab monarchies: The royal rulers of the oil-rich Persian Gulf and Jordan will soon be fighting for their lives. The first likely to succumb to insurgency is the tiny kingdom of Bahrain and its Al-Khalifa throne.
Sunnis versus Shiites: The Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict, already in full flow in Syria and Lebanon, is snapping at Baghdad.
Israel. Armed confrontations cannot be ruled out between Israel and the new Arab regimes – for instance, a clash with the Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood over the terrorist-infested Sinai Peninsula, or armed hostilities with other Islamist extremist forces and militias associated with Iran or Al-Qaeda.

What will Obama say in Cairo Speech 2?

Barack Obama begins his first visit to Israel as US president Wednesday, March 20.
He has made a personal request to transfer the speech he was invited to give before the Israeli parliament (Knesset) on March 21, to the Jerusalem Convention Center which seats an audience of 3,000.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in Washington and Jerusalem, the US president said he intended making a major policy speech from Jerusalem on the same lines as the historic address he delivered at Cairo University on June 4 to mark a new beginning for US relations with the Muslim world..
Obama is writing this “major speech” himself. Although it appears to be intended as a new message to the Middle East, its content is a closely guarded secret.
But the Middle East and the Muslim world have changed intrinsically since then. And, furthermore, in 2009, the US was still a major military presence in the region. That presence has shrunk substantially in the interim. It will be interesting to hear what the US president has to say in the aftermath of his dramatic pullback of American military resources from the region. And even more intriguing to see which Middle East rulers are still heeding him.