World economic growth has weakened substantially this year and faces the confluence of a triple threat — the so-called fiscal cliff in the United States, the European debt crisis and a sharp slowdown in China, the United Nations said in a report released on Tuesday. The worst case, the report said, could be a new global recession that mires many countries in a cycle of austerity and unemployment for years.
The report’s main author, Robert Vos, director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said it could take until at least 2017 just to recoup the jobs lost in the United States and Europe since the 2008-9 recession.
He forecast world growth for 2013 at 2.4 percent, “a significant downgrade” from the United Nations’ midyear forecast of 3.1 percent. He said the 2012 growth rate was 2.2 percent, versus the midyear forecast of 2.5 percent.
“I’m afraid this time around we’re not very optimistic about how things are moving,” Mr. Vos said at a news conference at United Nations headquarters.
“A worsening of the euro area crisis, the ‘fiscal cliff’ in the United States and a hard landing in China could cause a new global recession,” Mr. Vos said in the report, “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013.” He said the forecast growth was “far from sufficient to overcome the continued jobs crisis that many countries are still facing.”
The report’s proposals to avoid that outcome — more government programs that focus on job growth, fiscal coordination and aid to developing countries — are not likely to be widely embraced by policy makers in the United States and Europe, where the preoccupation is on budget cuts and spending discipline. Still, the report provides one of the most complete assessments of the world’s economic trends and reflects what United Nations experts view as the most pressing areas of concern.
Shamshad Akhtar, assistant secretary general for economic development, who introduced Mr. Vos’s report, began by reciting a list of maladies, including record unemployment in Europe, a decline in global trade, volatility in the flows of capital and low food stocks in many poorer countries that have made prices in those countries unpredictable.
While she and Mr. Vos acknowledged the news reports on progress in the debt-reduction negotiations between the White House and Congressional Republicans to avoid dire automatic tax increases and spending cuts that would take effect in January, what has been called the fiscal cliff, they erred on the side of assuming the worst. Both said the shock of those drastic fiscal changes would further weaken economies elsewhere.
“Even if we don’t get to the fiscal cliff, what’s on the table now is not too far from what would happen if the United States goes over the cliff,” Mr. Vos said. “That is reason for some concern.”
He criticized the focus in developed countries on austerity, calling it “detrimental to their own economic recovery,” and said cuts “should not come at the expense of the development efforts of the poorest nations.”
During the economic crisis four years ago, China helped to cushion the impact with huge doses of stimulus spending, but there is no single savior this time. If China’s growth rate of 7.5 percent this year slows to 5 percent or less, Mr. Vos said, “that would have major global ramifications.”
He said growth rates in 2012 fell sharply almost everywhere except Africa, where economies grew in the 5 percent to 6 percent range, helped by strength in oil-exporting countries, spending on basic infrastructure improvements and expanding ties with Asian economies.
But he said Africa remains plagued by armed conflicts and many other challenges, and the strong growth will not hasten the end of the continent’s poverty.
In his article, “The Revolt of Islam in Syria,” Jerusalem Post, December 12, 2012, Jonathan Spyer, senior fellow at the GLORIA Center, points out compelling information about the new Western-backed leadership in Syria.
The bottom line: If this is Syria’s new government then Syria now has an Islamist regime. This is happening with the knowledge and collaboration of the Obama Administration and a number of European governments. It is a catastrophe and one that's taking place due to the deliberate decisions of President Barack Obama and other Western leaders. Even if one rationalizes the Islamist takeover in Egypt as due to internal events, this one is U.S.-made.
As Spyer points out, U.S. and European policy can be summarized as follows:
“To align with and strengthen Muslim Brotherhood-associated elements, while painting Salafi forces as the sole real Islamist danger. At the same time, secular forces are ignored or brushed aside.”
The new regime, recognized by the United States and most European countries, as the legitimate leadership of the Syrian people, is the Syrian National Coalition, which has also established a military council.
Spyer’s detailed evidence for these arguments--much of which comes from raw wire service reports, praise is due to Reuters in this case--is undeniable. And if we know about these things there's no doubt that the highest level of the U.S. government does so as well.
Why is this happening? Because Obama and others believe that they can moderate the Muslim Brotherhood and it will tame the Salafists, despite massive evidence to the contrary. This is the biggest foreign policy blunder of the last century and the cost for it will be high. It should be stressed that such a strategy is totally unnecessary and the alternatives have been ignored, the real moderates are being betrayed.
The Hot Holiday Shopping Trend: Selfishness
(But) self-splurging is increasingly popular with younger Americans — over 70 percent of consumers in the 18 to 24 age range said they will buy gifts for themselves. “It looks like young adults have the ‘one for you two for me’ mentality this year,” said BIGinsight Consumer Insights Director Pam Goodfellow in the press release, “which is surprising given that this is also the age group that typically doesn’t have the income or ability to splurge.”
Putin Eyes Middle East in Balance of Power
Putin has a master's thesis up his sleeve. What Putin is looking for is to reestablish Russia as a major world power through the control of natural resources. So far he has already done a good job, buying up and maintaining a strangle-hold on Europe's energy and has recently gained significant control in many other major world markets – right under the industry’s nose. And, it’s in Arab resources he is most interested. “It is true that a secular Russia and an Islamist Arab state would not be a match exactly made in heaven, but a common opponent (the United States) and a common goal (more revenues for the country's coffers through higher oil prices) could very well bring them together in a marriage of convenience, says Katusa.
NYTimes's Helene Cooper: Choose Between 2nd Amendment Rights or 'Kids [Being] Safe' at school
Cooper laid out the issue in emotional terms, suggesting people must choose between the protection of the Second Amendment and the safety of little kids at school. As if even a total repeal could ever guarantee that.
Volcanic activity world-wide 18 December 2012: Tungurahua, Tobachik, Paluweh, Popocatépetl, Fuego, Pacaya, Santiaguito, Turrialba, Reventador, Galeras
Lava flows have now reached a reported length of 20 km. The seismic activity from the volcano is so strong that the seismic recordings from nearby Klyuchevskoy and Bezymianny are obscured.
University of Tennessee study predicts extreme climate in Eastern US
The study found that heat waves will become more severe in most regions of the eastern United States and, that both the Northeast and Southeast will see a drastic increase in precipitation. The findings are published in Environmental Research Letters.
Belgium looks at euthanasia for minors, Alzheimer's sufferers
The draft legislation calls for "the law to be extended to minors if they are capable of discernment or affected by an incurable illness or suffering that we cannot alleviate." Belgium was the second country in the world after the Netherlands to legalise euthanasia in 2002 but it applies only to people over the age of 18. Socialist Senator Philippe Mahoux, who helped draft the proposed changes, said there had been cases of adolescents who "had the capacity to decide" their future.
Gay Marine proposes in the White House
Positioned in front of a Christmas tree in the Grand Foyer of the White House, 35-year-old Matthew Phelps asked his 26-year-old boyfriend, Ben Schock, to marry him on Dec. 15.
Deadly virus that has killed hundreds of lambs and calves on UK farms 'has spread to every county'
•The killer Schmallenberg virus has now been detected in every county in England and Wales •Virus has already killed hundreds of lambs or calves on British farms, and figures are expected to rise
U.N. Presents Grim Prognosis on the World Economy
World economic growth has weakened substantially this year and faces the confluence of a triple threat — the so-called fiscal cliff in the United States, the European debt crisis and a sharp slowdown in China, the United Nations said in a report released on Tuesday. The worst case, the report said, could be a new global recession that mires many countries in a cycle of austerity and unemployment for years.
Analysis of social media in Libya finds no reference to anti-Islam film on day of attack
The independent review of more than 4,000 postings was conducted by a leading social media monitoring firm. “From the data we have, it’s hard for us to reach the conclusion that the consulate attack was motivated by the movie. Nothing in the immediate picture – surrounding the attack in Libya -- suggests that,” Jeff Chapman, chief executive with Agincourt Solutions told Fox News.
Report recommends France legalize 'accelerated deaths'
France should allow doctors to "accelerate the coming of death" for terminally ill patients, a report to President Francois Hollande recommended Tuesday. Hollande referred the report to a national council on medical ethics which will examine the precise circumstances under which such steps could be authorised with a view to producing draft legislation by June 2013.
Berlusconi says Italy may be forced to leave the euro zone
Former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi said on Tuesday Italy would be forced to leave the euro zone unless the European Central Bank gets more powers to ensure lower borrowing costs. ..."If Germany doesn't accept that the ECB must be a real central bank, if interest rates don't come down, we will be forced to leave the euro and return to our own currency in order to be competitive," Berlusconi said...
Benghazi review slams State Department on security
The leaders of an independent panel that blamed systematic State Department management and leadership failures for gross security lapses in the deadly Sept. 11 attack on a U.S. diplomatic mission in Libya will explain their findings to Congress on Wednesday. ...Despite those deficiencies, the board determined that no individual officials ignored or violated their duties and recommended no disciplinary action.
Syria rebels make further gains
Rebels in Syria are reported to have made fresh gains as the battle for control of the country intensifies. The rebels said they had seized the central town of Halfaya and stormed an army base near the southern city of Deraa, capturing a number of tanks. There has also been fighting between rebels and a pro-government Palestinian group for control of two refugee camps in the south of the capital, Damascus.
S&P raises Greece's credit rating
Ratings agency Standard and Poor's has raised the credit rating of Greece's sovereign debt by six levels, praising the "strong determination" of fellow eurozone countries to help it stay as a member state. S&P has increased Greece's rating from "selective default" to "B-minus". The agency also praised the continuing efforts by Greece's government to cut its spending.
Newtown shootings: Obama 'backs assault weapons ban'
US President Barack Obama wants to reinstate an assault weapons ban in the wake of the mass killings in Newtown, Connecticut, his spokesman says. Jay Carney said the president was "actively supportive" of a Democratic senator's plan to introduce a bill on the first day of the next Congress. There could also be moves on ammunition and gun-sale loopholes, Mr Carney said.
Jerusalem city council member Yair Gabai told Arutz Sheva of his first-hand humiliation of discrimination against Jews, especially those who are religious, trying to visit the Temple Mount. He said he has asked Public Security Minister Yitzchak Aharonovitch to order equal treatment for Jews and Arabs but doubts any action will be taken, at least not before next month’s elections.
“The only group of people prohibited from the Temple Mount are Jews even though it is our holiest place and holier to us than to any other people,” he said. “
Immediately after he arrived, Gabai said he felt the discrimination against religious Jews like himself.
“We were interrogated with questions such as where we were going, why we came and what we intended to do on the Temple Mount, questions that non-observant Jews are not asked.”
Gabai said that if the interrogation was for security issues, he would not have complaints, “but these kind of questions are unacceptable. He added, “Special police were needed, not to protect us from Arabs but rather to make sure we would not utter even one verse of prayer,” which the Muslim authorities on the Temple Mount forbid.
Police were particularly aggressive in their attitude, according to Gabai. He said they remove from the Temple Mount anyone who even appears to be praying.
In addition, on the day he visited, Jews were restricted from ascending the Temple Mount except for one hour.
Due to the extensive interrogation, he said little time remained to actually remain on the Temple Mount.
On the other hand, Arabs are given free entry, he added.
WASHINGTON — Relations between Bahrain and the United States have
come under increasing strain amid the Shi’ite revolt in the Gulf Cooperation
Council kingdom, a report said.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said that Bahraini
leaders were expressing dismay over what they determined was Washington’s
failure to support Manama in the campaign against Shi’ites backed by Iran.
The institute cited veiled criticism of the administration of President
Barack Obama during the Manama Dialogue in early December.
“The United States sees political reform as compatible with maintaining the historical security relationship, while the royal family views Shi’ite leaders with suspicion, believing they are too sympathetic to Iran and determined to change the political status quo,” the report said.
Titled “U.S. Differences with Bahrain Playing Out in Public,” author
Simon Henderson said U.S. diplomats were stunned by an address by Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa to the Manama Dialogue. Salman, long regarded by Washington as the leading lobbyist for reform, failed to mention the United States in the kingdom’s list of allies. Bahrain has hosted the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet for the last 40 years. Instead, the crown prince addressed unidentified countries that criticized Bahrain’s leadership.
“The exchange suggests that the gap in perceptions between Washington
and Manama is as wide as ever,” the report, dated Dec. 12, said.
The report was released amid increasing criticism of the United States
by Manama. Parliamentarians reported close
coordination between the U.S. embassy in Manama and the Shi’ite opposition.
Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner was the last senior U.S.
official to visit Manama. On Dec. 11, Posner urged Manama to prosecute
officials responsible for human rights violations during the Shi’ite revolt
in 2011.
“Going forward, two dangers threaten U.S.-Bahraini relations,” the
report said. “The first is that Iran will attempt to further weaken the
relationship; the second is that Washington has made seemingly little effort
to repair it. In December 2011, for example, only a single, junior U.S.
official attended the Bahrain National Day celebration in Washington.”
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is asking the UN to take the first step towards flooding Israel with foreign Arabs by suggesting Syrian “refugees” move to the PA.
Abbas’ request to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, was reported by the official Palestinian Authority website Wednesday.
His latest diplomatic ploy could place Israel again in the role of “bad man.” Abbas asked Ban “to help the Palestinian refugees in Syria, who are suffering from the bloody conflict there, to return to live in the Palestinian Territory.”
The PA’s WAFA website said that there are 450,000 “Palestinian refugees” in Syria in 10 villages. The largest is Yarmouk, where Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces attacked in the past week and killed more than two dozen people. Like other “refugee camps,” terrorists have established a powerful position in Yarmouk.
If Israel were to balk at allowing them to cross from Syria, the international community would likely accuse the government of being cold-hearted.
Abbas’ actual intentions more likely are using the Syrian Arab refugees as a the first wedge in long-standing demand that more than 5 million foreign Arabs be allowed into all of Israel and not just in Gaza, Judea and Samaria.
The Arabs in question are descendants of approximately 750,000 who fled Israel or were forced to leave during wars in which Jordan and Arab neighbors promised the Arabs they would be able to return to Israel in a short period of time after the anticipated annihilation of the Jewish state.
The United Nations does not designate any second generation as a “refugee” except for the Arabs. In all other cases, those who flee their home countries are classified as refugees, but their children and future generations are considered citizens of the countries where they live.
The special distinction for Arab “refugees” leaves on the diplomatic table a time bomb. Virtually all sectors of Israeli society, including most leftists, oppose opening the gates to immigration of foreign Arabs, which would end Israel as a Jewish state regardless of whether the Palestinian Authority can establish itself as an independent country.
The foreign countries hosting the Arab descendants have refused to grant them citizenship, except for a small number, provoking a situation of poverty and inequality that has provided a breeding ground for Muslim terrorists.
More than 2,000 additional housing units have been approved for a Jerusalem suburb, in a move sure to set off another firestorm of protest in the international community.
The Interior Ministry's planning committee gave its approval on Wednesday for a project to build 2,610 new homes in Givat HaMatos, a suburb of Jerusalem located in an area restored to the city during the 1967 Six Day-War.
Danny Seideman, head of the NGO “Terrestrial Jerusalem,” told the AFP news agency, “I just spoke with the deputy mayor and they told me the 2,610 units have been approved.”
As with all of Judea and Samaria, any area of Jerusalem seized by Jordan during the 1948 War of Independence and held until 1967 is claimed by the Palestinian Authority for its hoped-for state. In particular, the PA has claimed the parts of Jerusalem that were occupied by Jordan to be used for a capital of that state. The international community and leftist organizations support the claim.
But Israel's decision to allow more construction in its capital city is about the needs of its citizens, and not about the Palestinian Authority, asserted Housing Minister Ariel Attias on Wednesday.
“The latest construction plans beyond the “Green Line” were not aimed at undermining Abu Mazen (the nom de guerre of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas -ed.), and were not motivated by the elections,” Attias said.
Construction in Jerusalem, Israel's capital, is the norm, he continued. “Who didn't build in Jerusalem? From [the late Prime Minister Yitzchak] Rabin to [former Prime Minister] Ehud Barak... All we want is to promote building for people so that they will have a roof over their heads,” he said.
U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland on Tuesday slammed the Netanyahu government's decision to approve long-needed housing projects in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria.
On Tuesday the Housing Ministry announced plans to issue tenders next week for construction of 3,000 new homes in the cities of Karnei Shomron, Efrat and Givat Ze'ev. All three are located in large “settlement blocs” in Judea and Samaria - areas with a large Israeli presence that would remain with the Jewish State regardless of any outcome in final status negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.
Another decision that raised ire around the world was approval of the next step in a housing project for the Jerusalem neighborhood of Ramat Shlomo. The Interior Ministry's planning committee told developers they must reduce the original 1,600 housing units to 1,500 and resubmit modifications to the plans, but then would see “final approval” of the project, which has dragged on for years.
“We are deeply disappointed that Israel insists on continuing this pattern of provocative action,” Nuland told journalists at a briefing in Washington.
“These repeated announcements and plans of new construction run counter to the cause of peace. Israel's leaders continually say that they support a path towards a two-state solution, yet these actions only put that goal further at risk,” she said.