Looking for His glorious appearing! Titus 2:13

Tel Abyad Fall With U.S. Air Cover is An Epic Coup Against Isis
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Contemporary Issues

Amid the welter of Middle East war news this week, the event standing out as most significant was the recapture of the ISIS-held northern border town of Tel Abyad on June 15 by a coalition of Kurdish YPG militia and the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces, backed by US air strikes.
The town in the northern ar-Raqqa province on the Turkish border had been held by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant for six months.
The victory linked the Kurdish cantons of Kobani and Haskah into a contiguous zone of YPG control along the Turkish border. Most importantly, it placed a joint YPG-FSA force in position to advance south toward the ISIS Syrian stronghold of Raqqa.
It also cut the ISIS supply route for reinforcements and other essentials from Turkey.
DEBKA Weekly’s military and intelligence sources report that, for once, the US aerial campaign against ISIS yielded a major strategic dividend. For Syria’s some 12 million to 14 million Kurds, it brought an unforeseen windfall, giving them hope to establish their own state in northern Syria. They would then overtake the semi-independent Iraqi Kurdish Republic (9 million), whose chances of gaining full independence are unclear.
The Kurdish forces achieved their rapid advance on Tel Abyad thanks to their cooperation with a coalition of Arab tribes, Assyrian paramilitary forces and Free Syrian Army-affiliated rebel factions. Now, they must decide whether to go full tilt against Raqqa or first consolidate their gains.
Sensing the turning tide, jihadi leaders directed Raqqa residents to stock up on food and prepare for a siege.

Erdogan is second big loser after ISIS
The other big loser of the Kurds’ success is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His government has repeatedly condemned their YPG as a “terrorist gang” because of its connections with the outlawed Turkish Kurdish Workers Party (PKK).
On June 14, he warned that the YPG’s seizure of Tel Abyad “could lead to the creation of a structure that threatens our borders.” He indicated that Ankara would reassess its participation in the war on ISIS, considering the potential threat to Turkey’s borders posed by its consequences.
This was Erdogan’s second defeat in the past fortnight at Kurdish hands.
Votes for the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party in Turkey’s general election cost his ruling AKP (Justice and Development) party a majority in the Turkish parliament, by breaking through the 10 percent threshold to win 15 seats.
The Tel Abyad victory coming next put paid to the Turkish president’s dual game of backing the US-Saudi-supported rebel Army of Conquest, on the one hand, while turning a blind eye to his country serving as the corridor for ISIS recruits from across the Muslim world to join the jihadis in Syria.
The last two days have seen more welcome traffic going in the opposite direction, as refugees who fled ISIS rule in Tel Abyad started returning to their homes.

Salman Seeks a Russian Safety Net in Case Saudi - U.S. Collaboration Fails to Oust Assad
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Contemporary Issues

What special mission brought Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman to Moscow Wednesday, June 17?
According to the official Saudi royal court statement, the visit was “in response to an invitation from the Russian government” - but also, “based on the directive of King Salman Bin Abdelaziz,” the prince “would hold talks with President Vladimir Putin and top Russian officials.”
This diplomatic jargon means that the young prince was empowered to speak for the king, his father, and conclude official business on his behalf.
The last high-ranking Saudi to visit Moscow was Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, then National Security Adviser to the late King Abdullah and Director of General Intelligence. Underlying Bandar’s mission was the proposition that, since Riyadh could no longer rely on President Barack Obama’s policies on the Iranian and Syrian issues, dialogue with Moscow was a wise alternative.
The Saudis had also decided to finance Russian weapons purchases for their allies, especially Egypt.
Bandar certainly opened Russian doors to Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi for a connection that remains strong up until now. El-Sisi was guest of honor alongside Putin at the Russian Victory Day Parade on May 9 and the two governments signed a $3.5 billion arms deal, for which Riyadh had promised to pick up the tab.
But all this happened when Abdullah was still alive. Since the throne passed to Salman in January, despite the new king’s pledge to honor Riyadh’s commitment to pay for the purchased arms, not a dollar has yet been deposited with Moscow.

Getting rid of the immovable Assad is a bone of contention
The hold-up may be partly explained by Salman’s disapproval of the consensus reached between the Egyptian and Russian presidents on the fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Both agree that he should stay in power in contrast to the Saudi view.
Putin worries that, if the Syrian ruler goes, Al Qaeda’s Syrian arm, the Nusra Front, and the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq will move in and seize power. Caucasian and Chechen terrorists are active in both these jihadist movements and are capable of setting up bases in Damascus for launching strikes against Russian cities, including Moscow.
Since the change of power in Riyadh, the Egyptian president finds he is the only Arab ruler willing to fight the Muslim Brotherhood, a group which President Obama quietly fosters - and the longstanding foe of the Assad clan.
The primary mission King Salman entrusted to his son was to build a bridge atop this conflict of interests and transcend it for the betterment of relations between Riyadh and Moscow. This approach came from Salman’s suspicion that Saudi collaboration with the US, in fighting for Assad’s downfall, could end up leaving him in power.

Prince Mohammed bears gifts to Moscow for bridging differences
Washington and Riyadh are at present jointly backing two Syrian rebel forces – the Army of Conquest on the northern front and the Jaysh Hermon in the south. They have succeeded in driving Assad’s army out of large swathes of territory and pushing his troops back toward Damascus. Yet Assad remains immovable as president – which is exactly what Putin and El-Sisi intend.
The young prince is charged with persuading the Russian president that both need alternative collaborators in the uncertain days ahead of the Syrian conflict. The new Saudi King is coming around to sharing his predecessor’s limited reliance on Washington. To gain Russia as a safety net, Riyadh is offering Moscow four incentives:
1. To open Saudi and Gulf markets to Russian exports;
2. To pay the bill for the Egyptian-Russian arms transaction;
3. To invest in Russian hardware for arming the Saudi army, starting with large quantities of Iskander 3 missile systems (NATO named SS-26 Stone). This is a mobile short-range ballistic missile that can deliver nuclear warheads. The Saudis want to use it as a deterrent against Iranian military expansionist activities in the Gulf, including Tehran’s support of the Houthi insurgency in Yemen.
4. To acquire and introduce for use in the kingdom the Russian Glonass satellite system, a competitor of the American GPS.

Russia Warns of 'Risks' Should Sweden Join NATO
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily NewsThe Local
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

A top Russian official has told a leading Swedish newspaper that the country would be likely to face military action if it were to join Nato.

Pentagon Building Cruise Missile Shield to Defend U.S. Cities from Russia
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily NewsDefense One
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

The plan calls for buying radars that would enable National Guard F-16 fighter jets to spot and shoot down fast and low-flying missiles. Top generals want to network those radars with sensor-laden aerostat balloons hovering over U.S. cities and with coastal warships equipped with sensors and interceptor missiles of their own.

One of those generals is Adm. William Gortney, who leads U.S. Northern Command, or NORTHCOM, and North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD. Earlier this year, Gortney submitted an “urgent need” request to put those new radars on the F-16s that patrol the airspace around Washington. Such a request allows a project to circumvent the normal procurement process.

While no one will talk openly about the Pentagon’s overall cruise missile defense plans, much of which remains classified, senior military officials have provided clues in speeches, congressional hearings and other public forums over the past year. The statements reveal the Pentagon’s concern about advanced cruise missiles being developed by Russia.

“We’re devoting a good deal of attention to ensuring we’re properly configured against such an attack in the homeland, and we need to continue to do so,” Adm. Sandy Winnefeld, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a May 19 speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington.

In recent years, the Pentagon has invested heavily, with mixed results, in ballistic missile defense: preparations to shoot down long-range rockets that touch the edge of space and then fall toward targets on Earth. Experts say North Korea and Iran are the countries most likely to strike the U.S. or its allies with such missiles, although neither arsenal has missiles of sufficient range so far. 

But the effort to defend the U.S. mainland against smaller, shorter-range cruise missiles has gone largely unnoticed.

“While ballistic missile defense has now become established as a key military capability, the corresponding counters to cruise missiles have been prioritized far more slowly,” said Thomas Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington. “In some ways, this is understandable, in terms of the complexity of the threat, but sophisticated cruise missile technologies now out there are just not going away and we are going to have to find a way to deal with this — for the homeland, for allies and partners abroad, and for regional combatant commanders.”

Intercepting cruise missiles is far different from shooting down a missile of the ballistic variety. Launched by ships, submarines, or even trailer-mounted launchers, cruise missiles are powered throughout their entire flight. This allows them to fly close to the ground and maneuver throughout flight, making them difficult for radar to spot.

“A handful of senior military officials, including several current or past NORTHCOM commanders, have been among those quietly dinging the bell about cruise missile threats, and it’s beginning to be heard,” Karako said.

While many of the combatant commanders — the 4-star generals and admirals who command forces in various geographic regions of the world — believe cruise missiles pose a threat to the United States, they have had trouble convincing their counterparts in the military services who decide what arms to buy.

Fast-track requests like Gortney’s demand for new radars on F-16s have been used over the past decade to quickly get equipment to troops on the battlefield. Other urgent operational needs have included putting a laser seeker on a Maverick missile to strike fast-moving vehicles and to buy tens of thousands of MRAP vehicles that were rushed to Iraq to protect soldiers from roadside bomb attacks.

Last August, at a missile defense conference in Huntsville, Ala., then-NORTHCOM and NORAD commander Gen. Charles Jacoby criticized the Army and other services for failing to fund cruise missile defense projects. NORTHCOM, based in Colorado, is responsible for defending the United States from such attacks.

“I’m trying to get a service to grab hold of it … but so far we’re not having a lot of success with that,” Jacoby said when asked by an attendee about the Pentagon’s cruise missile defense plans. “I’m glad you brought that up and gave me a chance to rail against my service for not doing the cruise missile work that I need them to do.”

But since then, NORTHCOM has been able to muster support in Congress and at the Pentagon for various related projects. “We’ve made a case that growing cruise missile technology in our state adversaries, like Russia and China, present a real problem for our current defenses,” Jacoby said.

One item at the center of these plans is a giant aerostat called JLENS, short for the Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System. The Pentagon is testing the system at Maryland’s Aberdeen Proving Ground, a sprawling military complex north of Baltimore. Reporters have even been invited to see the tethered airship, which hovers 10,000 feet in the air.

JLENS carries a powerful radar on its belly that Pentagon officials say can spot small moving objects – including cruise missiles – from Boston to Norfolk, Va., headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Atlantic Fleet. Since it’s so high in the air, it can see farther than ground radars.

JLENS is in the early stages of a three-year test phase, but comments by senior military officials indicate the Pentagon in considering expanding this use of aerostats far beyond the military’s National Capital Region district.

“This is a big country and we probably couldn’t protect the entire place from cruise missile attack unless we want to break the bank,” Winnefeld said. “But there are important areas in this country we need to make sure are defended from that kind of attack.”

New missile interceptors could also play a role in the network too.

“We’re also looking at the changing-out of the kinds of systems that we would use to knock down any cruise missiles headed towards our nation’s capital,” Winnefeld said.

Ground-launched versions of ship- and air-launched interceptors could be installed around major cities or infrastructure, experts say. Raytheon, which makes shipborne SM-6 interceptors, announced earlier this year that it was working on a ground-launched, long-range version of the AMRAAM air-to-air missile.

The improvements make the missiles “even faster and more maneuverable,” the company said in a statement when the announcement was made at the IDEX international arms show in Abu Dhabi in February.

The Threat

Driving the concern at the Pentagon is Russia’s development of the Kh-101, an air-launched cruise missile with a reported range of more than 1,200 miles.

“The only nation that has an effective cruise missile capability is Russia,” Gortney said at a March 19 House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee hearing.

Russian cruise missiles can also be fired from ships and submarines. Moscow has also developed containers that could potentially conceal a cruise missile on a cargo ship, meaning it wouldn’t take a large nation’s trained military to strike American shores.

“Cruise missile technology is available and it’s exportable and it’s transferrable,” Jacoby said. “So it won’t be just state actors that present that threat to us.”

During the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, American and Kuwaiti Patriot missiles intercepted a number of Iraqi ballistic missiles, Karako said. But they missed all five cruise missiles fired, including one fired at Marine headquarters in Kuwait. In 2006, Hezbollah hit an Israeli corvette ship with an Iranian-supplied, Chinese-designed, anti-ship cruise missile, Karako said.

Shooting down the missiles themselves is a pricy proposition, which has led Pentagon officials to focus on the delivery platform.

“The best way to defeat the cruise missile threat is to shoot down the archer, or sink the archer, that’s out there,” Gortney said at an April news briefing at the Pentagon.

At a congressional hearing in March, Gortney said the Pentagon needed to expand its strategy to “hit that archer.”

An existing network of radars, including the JLENS, and interceptors make defending Washington easier than the rest of the country.

“[T]he national capital region is the easier part in terms of the entire kill chain,” Maj. Gen. Timothy Ray, director of Global Power Programs in the Air Force acquisition directorate, said in March at a House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee hearing. “We remain concerned about the coverage for the rest of the country and the rest of the F-16 fleet.”

Winnefeld said that the JLENS and “other systems we are putting in place” would “greatly enhance our early warning around the National Capital Region.”

In an exercise last year, the Pentagon used a JLENS, an F-15, and an air-to-air missile to shoot down a simulated cruise missile. In the test, the JLENS locked on to the cruise missile and passed targeting data to the F-15, which fired an AMRAAM missile. The JLENS then steered the AMRAAM into the mock cruise missile.

But there are many wild cards in the plans, experts say. While the JLENS has worked well in testing, it is not tied into the NORTHCOM’s computer network. It was also tested in Utah where there was far less commercial and civil air traffic than East Coast, some of the most congested airspace in the world. At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in March, Gortney acknowledged the project is “not without challenges,” but said that’s to be expected in any test program.

It is also unclear whether the JLENS over Maryland spotted a Florida mailman who flew a small gyrocopter from Gettysburg, Penn., to the U.S. Capitol lawn in Washington, an hour-long flight through some of the most restricted airspace in the country. The JLENS has been long touted by its makers as being ideal for this tracking these types of slow-moving aircraft.

Gortney, in an April 29 House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing about the gyrocopter, told lawmakers the JLENS “has more promise” than other aerostat-mounted radars used by the Department of Homeland Security along the border with Mexico and in South Florida. He deferred his explanation to the classified session after the public hearing.

Experts say JLENS can not just spot but track and target objects like cruise missiles, making it better than other radars used for border security.

Raytheon has built two JLENS, the one at Aberdeen and another in storage and ready for deployment.

If a cruise missile were fired toward Washington, leaders would not have much time to react.

“Solving the cruise missile problem even for Washington requires not just interceptors to be put in place, but also redundant and persistent sensors and planning for what to do, given very short response times,” Karako said

Let the Headlines Speak
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily NewsFrom the internet
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Nikki Haley: Death Penalty for Roof, Not Gun Control
“We will absolutely want him to have the death penalty,” Haley NBC's Savannah Guthrie on “Today." Roof was the only person to blame, she said, "a person filled with hate."  

Hamas close to agreeing five-year ceasefire with Israel: sources
The plan, proposed by Qatar and supported by Turkey as well as a number of EU countries and the UN, would see Hamas and Israel declare a five-year ceasefire in exchange for Israel easing its blockade of Gaza, speeding up the process of rebuilding the Strip, and constructing a floating seaport on the Gaza coast. The plan could also be extended beyond the five years.  

INCOMING CME
Yesterday, June 18th, sunspot AR2371 unleashed the strongest solar flare in nearly 2 months. The M3-class explosion caused a brief shortwave radio blackout over North America, and it hurled a CME into space. A glancing blow is likely on June 20th or 21st, possibly sparking geomagnetic activity and auroras.  

Author: Muslim spies in churches to catalog Jews and Christians for jihad
"When Muslims come to you and say 'Oh yes, we have accepted Christ and we are born-again,' you gotta be real careful because lying in Arabic is not only permissible it is commanded," he added. "Lying is a virtue in Islam to defeat the enemy."  

Area 51 and extra-terrestrial life both exist, says head of Nasa
Nasa Administrator Major Charles Frank Bolden Jr said that alien life does exist, but it is not being kept secret in Area 51.  

Sen. Rand Paul to Unveil 14.5 Percent Flat Tax for All
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul outlined some of the highlights of a "fair and flat tax" plan he was to unveil on Capitol Hill later on Thursday, saying that the measure will not only simplify the nation's sprawling tax code, but will allow Americans to keep more of the money they've earned.  

Russian Help Needed to Establish Peace in Syria, Iraq - French Ex-PM Fillon
“It’s necessary to solve the Ukrainian issue and a large alliance [with Russia] needs to be made in order to establish peace in Syria and Iraq.”  

France Wants the Whole World to Replace US to Force ‘Peace Process'
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius is launching a new effort to resurrect the “peace” process” that nobody seems to want, except for Western leaders who see the world from hotel rooms and airplanes. He is traveling to the Middle East, where he plans to meet with Arab League ministers on Saturday and then with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday.  

MENACING SUNSPOT
Sunspot AR2371 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on June 19th. Any such explosions will probably be geoeffective as the sunspot is turning to face Earth.  

Tsipras optimistic on Greek debt deal as banks bleed
Greeks pulled more than 1 billion euros out of their banks in a single day, banking sources said on Friday, as the country edged closer to default despite assurances from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that the doomsayers are wrong. Tsipras was due to meet President Vladimir Putin on the second day of a visit to Russia on Friday - a trip that has raised eyebrows given the EU is at loggerheads with Moscow over the violence in eastern Ukraine.  

Volatile Indonesia volcano set to blow but thousands of villagers refuse to flee
Mount Sinabung, one of about 130 active volcanoes in Indonesia, has been at the highest alert level for nearly two weeks. On Tuesday, at least 48 avalanches of hot ash barreled down its slopes, with the biggest reaching 2.5 km (1.5 miles) southeastward. The volcano in northern Sumatra, one of Indonesia’s main islands, has also been shooting smoke and ash more than 700 meters (2,300 feet) into the air.  

Mount Shindake erupts for second time
Mount Shindake rumbled back to life Thursday as a second eruption rocked Kuchinoerabu Island off Kagoshima Prefecture shortly past noon, the Meteorological Agency said.  

Pentagon Building Cruise Missile Shield To Defend US Cities From Russia
The Pentagon is quietly working to set up an elaborate network of defenses to protect American cities from a barrage of Russian cruise missiles. The plan calls for buying radars that would enable...fighter jets to spot and shoot down fast and low-flying missiles. Top generals want to network those radars with sensor-laden aerostat balloons hovering over U.S. cities and with coastal warships equipped with sensors and interceptor missiles of their own.  

Russian fury at Belgium asset seizure in Yukos oil case
Russia has protested to the Belgian ambassador over the seizure of Russian state assets in Belgium - a move triggered by a court ruling over the now-defunct Yukos oil firm. The ambassador was told that the asset seizure was "an openly hostile act" that "crudely violates the recognised norms of international law".  

'If conflict not resolved, ISIS will make Palestinian cause its own'
France's foreign minister heads to the Middle East this weekend with an initiative aimed at bringing Israel and the Palestinians back to peace talks... "Everything points to inertia,..." said a senior French diplomat. "We can no longer isolate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from the regional context." If the conflict remains unresolved, the diplomat added, radical groups such as Islamic State will make the Palestinian cause their own.  

Palestinians head for Jerusalem to attend first Friday prayer of Ramadan
West Bank residents crossed on Friday the checkpoints separating them from Jerusalem on their way to Ramadan's first Friday prayers at al-Aksa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam. The Aksa compound includes the octagonal Dome of the Rock, which was built by Jerusalem's Arab conquerors in 691 on the spot where Muslims say the Prophet Mohammad began his night Journey to heaven.  

Rush Limbaugh Woes Continue Amid Ratings Drop In Major Markets
The Rush Limbaugh woes are still adding up a month after being notified he was getting dumped by his Boston talk radio host station. While Limbaugh is on another AM radio station in the city, the station currently boasts a 0.6 rating, and trails four non-commercial stations in the market, according to Examiner.  

Transgender Woman Sings National Anthem At Pro Sports Event For First Time
Transgender woman Breanna Sinclairé made history Wednesday night by becoming the first transgender person to sing the National Anthem at a professional sporting event.  

A Sermon of Hate in the District of Columbia
You wouldn’t expect conspiracy theories about Jews and their control of world events to be promoted in a church today. But that is exactly what was preached last month in Washington.  

Danish election: Opposition bloc wins
Denmark's opposition parties have beaten the ruling coalition after a close general election. With all mainland votes counted, the centre-right group led by ex-PM Lars Lokke Rasmussen beat PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt's centre-left coalition, although her party is the largest.  

Brian Williams to join MSNBC after losing anchor role
US news anchor Brian Williams will not return to his role at NBC Nightly News but instead join the cable news network MSNBC to cover breaking news. Mr Williams was suspended in February after reports that he had embellished his recollections about the Iraq war.  

Chaos in Libya paves way for Islamic State expansion
Benefiting from Libya’s political chaos, Islamic State militants are consolidating their base in the city of Sirte and grabbing new territory, pushing back fighters from Misrata.  

US urges N.Korea to drop 'fantasy' of nuclear program
North Korea must abandon its "fantasy" that it is free to pursue its nuclear program while seeking global help to prop up its economy, a top US official said Thursday.  

Denmark's new ruling party will be forced to face migration conundrum
Denmark's centre-right party will have to grapple with pressure to adopt border controls while remaining an open participant in a borderless European Union, after it clinched victory in the country's parliamentary election.  

Khamenei Sacks Qassem Soleimani from Command of the Syrian War Arena
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Contemporary Issues

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has relieved Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Al Qods Brigades chief and supreme commander of Iran forces in the Middle East, of his Syria command, DEBKA Weekly’s exclusive Iranian and intelligence sources reveal.
This was taken as a major affront by the elite arm of the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
The ayatollah’s marching order left Soleimani in charge of Iran’s military and intelligence operations in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon for the time being, but excluded Syria, where military setbacks were piling up too critically to overlook. The Al Qods chief’s promise of “major developments,” on June 2 - after he had rushed over to Damascus to deal with the crisis of Palmyra’s fall to the Islamic State – turned out to be empty rhetoric. His bravado in stating “In the next few days the world will be pleasantly surprised from what we (the IRGC) working with Syrian military commanders are preparing,” was not been followed up. The suggested dispatch of thousands of Iranian troops to the Assad regime’s rescue never materialized.
(In the last DEBKA Weekly #666, we outlined the situation in an article titled: Syrian and Hizballah Forces Driven out of Strongholds with No Iranian Troops Coming to Their Aid.)
Since then, the plight of the Syrian regime has gone from bad to worse, with the Islamic State and Syrian rebels taking turns cutting off chunks of territory; Hizballah stalled in its effort to dislodge rebel forces from the Qalamoun Mountains and, worse still, helpless to stem the war’s spillover into Lebanon.
The Iranian command governing the two campaigns has ground to a halt pending Tehran’s appointment of a new boss to replace Soleimani.

Jafari vindicated in his case against Soleimani’s generalship
It was rumored in Tehran this week that Khamenei had chosen the sacked general’s second-in-command, Deputy Al Qods Brigades chief Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghani, to take over the Syrian-Lebanese front. We have not yet heard of a final decision on this. Soleimani is meanwhile conducting a rearguard action to save his job by lobbying influential circles in Tehran.
For the IRGC’s supreme commander, Gen. Mohammed Ali Jafari, Soleimani’s dismissal from the Syrian warfront was a victory. For months he has been trying to convince Khamenei to remove the Al Qods chief from all Iran’s military fronts: Iran’s declining situation in Syria and Iraq is down to Soleimani’s management, he has explained, because those fronts call for a professional army general. Soleiman, an expert in subversive and clandestine intelligence, is not up to conducting ground warfare in an arena dominated by several armies, he argued.
> From the moment the Al Qods chief took command of the battle for Tikrit on March 2, not an inch of ground had been won in Iraq, said Jafari. The Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani Shiite militias he mustered failed to achieve any strategic advance against Islamic State forces. The subsequent fall of Ramadi on May 4 to ISIS was the inevitable consequence of this downward spiral.

Nothing but setbacks for Iran in Iraq, Syria and Yemen
The situation in Syria is still more acute. There, the anti-Assad opposition turned the tables on Soleimani’s plan of campaign.
Whereas he had mapped out three simultaneous offensives, to be conducted by the Syrian army, Hizballah and the imported Shiite militias, in Aleppo in the north, Qalamoun in the center and Deraa in the south – Syrian rebels Nusra Front and the ISIS ran off with the initiative. Their onslaughts forced the Syrian army and its allies to retreat. Because of the al Qods chief’s fiascos in Syria and Iraq, the Revolutionary Guards are reduced to building defense lines for the two capitals, Damascus and Baghdad, as a last resort.
Had a professional military tactician been in charge, said Jafari, neither Iran, the Shiite regime in Baghdad, Bashar Assad in Damascus, nor Hassan Nasrallah’s Hizballah would have been in this tight spot.
Jafari also damned Soleimani’s handling of the Yemen conflict, in which Tehran owns a major interest due to its proximity to the strategic Red Sea waterways of the Gulf of Aden and Straits of Babel-Mandeb.
Tehran’s protégées, the Houthi rebels, have not been able to break the tie with the Saudi-led coalition fighting to restore the internationally recognized president, and, in Jafari’s view, Soleimani committed a dangerous blunder by trying to shift the war across into Saudi Arabia. If the advantage tilts slightly in favor of the Houthis, he said, it was only due to Saudi “incompetence.”

Iran may pull in its horns and keep hold only of Shiite areas
Tehran must ask itself, he said, whether it makes sense to take on Saudi Arabia and lumber itself with a fourth Middle East war on top of its entanglements in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
At this point, Khamenei appears to have bought Jafari’s case against Soleimani, but opted to take it one step at a time, to avoid unduly rattling the IRGC, the Tehran regime’s main military and economic buttress. He decided to start by removing the Al Qods chief from the Syrian command where the situation is more precarious than on any other front.
Our sources add that it is not yet clear whether this dismissal also applies to his responsibilities for Hizballah and Lebanon. If it is followed up by Soleimani’s removal from the Iraq front too, it will most likely presage an Iranian decision to pull its horns in against the encroaching Islamist advances in both countries. DEBKA Weekly predicts that Iran may at some point consider cutting its losses by falling back into southern Iraq, where the Shiite holy cities are situated, and into the central and western Syrian Alawite towns of Homs, Hama, Tartous and Latakia, to provide the Lebanese Hizballah with a hinterland. Damascus may have to be written off as a loss in Tehran’s eventual Middle East power ledger.

Iranian - Yemeni Houthi Footholds on Red Sea Islands Threaten Saudis, Suez
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Contemporary Issues

Jabal al-Tair (literally Bird Mountain Island) is a roughly oval volcanic island northwest of the tight Bab a-Mandab passageway at the mouth of the Red Sea, about midway between Yemen and Eritrea. It is some 500m wide and still growing. In December 2011, this mass of lava broke through the water’s surface and began to take shape.
The two watchtowers and small military station which Yemen maintained on the island until now are the nucleus around which Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian Navy are setting up a base with the help of Hizballah, DEBKA Weekly’s military sources disclose.
Jabal al-Tair belongs to one of the strategic Red Sea island clusters which Tehran is taking over as a more useful option, for the time being, than direct seizure of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.
In Geneva, meanwhile, Monday, June 15, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon opened a conference for negotiating a Yemen ceasefire in Yemen. He warned that the country was “a ticking bomb,” while the Red Cross spoke of a human catastrophe in Yemen’s main cities after 80 days of aerial bombardment by the Saudi-led anti-insurgency coalition and 2,000 dead.
The Yemeni rebels’ plane left Sanaa Sunday afternoon to attend the conference, but was delayed in Djibouti for nearly 24 hours. They blamed Egypt and Sudan for not allowing their plane to transit their air space.
But when they did arrive, they refused to talk with representatives of the internationally-recognized Yemeni government. “We refuse any dialogue with those who have no legitimacy,” rebel member Mohammad Zubairi declared, and demanded talks instead with Saudi Arabia.

Houthi fighters and heavy weapons unloaded on Red Sea islands
The bickering in Geneva was no more than background chatter for Iran’s island-grabbing offensive in the Red Sea. By planting armed forces on enough of those islands, Tehran is in position to threaten the western seaboard of Saudi Arabia, turn the stretch of water north of Bab el-Mandeb into a potential obstacle course for international shipping plying the East-West route via the Suez Canal – including oil tankers - and blockade Israeli and Jordanian ports.
A group of IRGC, Iranian navy and Hizballah officers this week set about striking camp on the Bird Mountain Island cluster, as small fishing boats and larger vessels ferried Houti rebel fighters from the Yemeni coast. The boats then picked up heavy weapons, including artillery batteries and anti-air guns and missiles that were dropped by Iranian freighters anchored out at sea.
The Saudis suspect that sea-to-sea missiles were part of the shipment.
The same operation was repeated on the larger Zubayr group further south and closer to the strategic straits.
Zubayr is the largest and one of 10 younger volcanic islands lying atop a shield volcano protruding 191 meters (627ft) above sea level. Other young islands are Center Peak, Saba, Haycock and Saddle.
Saddle had its last underwater eruption on Sept. 28, 2013 lasting until October. It sent a large plume of steam into the air which was observed by satellite.

Houthis make inroads on Saudi coastal towns of Jizan and Najran
Houthi fighters and heavy armaments were scattered on these islands, including Kamaran, the largest Yemen-controlled Red Sea island.
With an area of 108 sq. km, Kamaran is located just 172 km from the southwestern Saudi town of Jizan; Bird Mountain is even closer – 169 km away and the Zubayr group, 209 km. Their occupation poses a direct threat to Saudi coastal towns, at a time that inland, the Saudi army has not managed to repel Houthi ground incursions of the towns of Najran and Jizan for setting up hostile military enclaves inside the kingdom.
The Yemeni Kamaran group lies opposite the Eritrean Dahlak Archipelago near Massawa on the eastern shore of the Red Sea and consists of two large and 124 small islands.
Asmara granted the Iranian Navy a naval supply base on the archipelago some years ago. A distance of 260 km separates this base from the occupied Yemeni islands.
These islands give Tehran powerful leverage over international shipping on the critical Red Sea route, without its having to directly intrude on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Iranians have therefore saved President Barack Obama from being put on the spot by his pledge to uphold “the freedom of traffic in international sea lanes,” including the Bab el-Mandeb.
Riyadh is sending bombers against the new Iranian-Houthi island strongholds. So far, Saudi Arabia has not gained the advantage in its campaign against the Houthi insurgency. But King Salman is unlikely to give ground in ceasefire negotiations while his kingdom stands under a direct Iranian military threat.

France Freezes Russian Assets Over Yukos Seizure
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily NewsDW
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

French authorities have seized dozens of bank accounts and several buildings owned by the Kremlin, shareholders of now-defunct oil giant Yukos have said. The Belgian government is said to have taken similar steps.

France has frozen Russian government assets, as Paris seeks to enforce a 2014 court ruling ordering Moscow to pay compensation to shareholders of now-defunct oil giant Yukos, which the Kremlin forced into bankruptcy in 2006.

The move was relayed by executive director of main shareholder GML, Tim Osborne, who said Thursday that "eight or nine buildings" had been seized along with some 40 bank accounts.

He added that French authorities had intervened two weeks ago, but that the news had only been "leaked" to Russia on Thursday. Neither Moscow, nor Paris have confirmed the reports.

"Proceedings are already under way in Britain and the United States and further countries will follow," Osborne said.

The statement comes on the same day the Kremlin announced it was looking into similar reports, claiming that a Belgian arbitration court had sided with a group of former shareholders about freezing Russian state property worth 1.65 billion euros ($1.9 billion).

"We are now in the most careful manner examining all circumstances of the claim," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

Putin's wrath

The dispute between Moscow and the shareholder dates back to mid-2000, after the Russian government broke up and began auctioning off Yukos' assets to other state-owned firms. Yukos was Russia's biggest oil company at the time, and was headed by the country's richest man, who was also one of President Vladimir Putin's staunchest opponents, Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Khodorkovsky was arrested at gunpoint in 2003 on allegations of tax evasion, in what many critics see as a warning shot by Putin meant to intimidate his detractors.

But in 2014 the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled unanimously to award $50 billion (37.2 billion euros) in damages to shareholders to subsidiaries of Gibraltar-based Group Mentap, through which Khodorkovsky ran Yukos. Group Menatep today exists as holding company GML.

The Hague's ruling followed decisions that Moscow had used its legal and tax system to unfairly target Yukos, handed down by the European Court of Human Rights and the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce, which is an established neutral body used by Russia and the West since the 1970s for trade disputes.

Desperate Greeks Turn to Vladimir Putin for Help As Country Teeters on Edge of Bankruptcy
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily NewsThe Independent
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Americans Now Give Saudi King Salman a Solid Six - To-eight Years
Jun 19th, 2015
Daily Newsdebkafile
Categories: Contemporary Issues

For two years, US official experts predicted strongly that Saudi King who succeeded in January at the age of 79, suffered from dementia and would have a shorter reign than his six predecessors due to his failing faculties. Learned US think tank researchers dismissed him as capable of remembering a conversation for no longer than five minutes before cutting out. This evaluation gained general acceptance in Berlin, Paris and London.
Now, all of a sudden, after barely six months on the throne, he is acclaimed by US intelligence officials as perfectly competent, as well as hard-working, bursting with initiative, and able to keep going at his current speed for another six to eight years. He would therefore still be on the throne when President Barack Obama’s successor ended his term at the White House
DEBKA Weekly’s Saudi experts, who were skeptical about the original US dismissal of Salman’s capabilities, are also wary about this startling reassessment. They suggest it may be influenced by the new king’s affinity with the branch of the Saudi clergy which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood, unlike King Abdullah who persecuted its adherents. This would align Salman with President Obama’s pro-Brotherhood orientation and his preference for a Turkey-Qatar-Saudi bloc over any other Middle East grouping.
(Although a Muslim Brotherhood delegation was invited to visit Washington, the State Department announced last week that US officials would not meet its members after Cairo summoned the US ambassador to express displeasure at the visit.)

Pretexts aplenty for demoting the crown prince in favor of the king’s son
Another motive behind Washington’s warm appreciation of the Saudi king and his prospects may have more to do with a power game afoot within the royal family. It is noted that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef, long the US administration’s preferred successor to Salman, is losing ground to the king’s own son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who at the age of 30 has been loaded with honors as Deputy Crown Prince, Minister of Defense, Chief of the Royal Court and Special Adviser to the King. This week, He was sent on an important mission to Moscow to represent the King in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The buzz in court circles these days downgrades Crown Prince MB Nayef. Though indefatigable in combating terrorism, he is said to be overdoing it against foreign extremists and neglecting domestic threats. Clandestine Islamic State cells have consequently mushroomed to the detriment of national security.
Arrests for the attacks staged on Shiite mosques in the Eastern Province on May 22 and 29 were seen as tardy. Responsibility was moreover claimed by the Islamic State’s “Wilayat of Najd,” namely a province established by ISIS in the very heartland of the Saudi national Wahhabi faith.
The criticism leveled against Crown Prince MB Nayef on this score is taken in Washington as a sign that he is on his way out, to make room for the king to anoint his son heir and first in line to the throne.
Other pretexts for his demotion were ready to hand in the Yemen conflict (see separate article), and Riyadh’s failure to curtail the spread of Iranian influence in the Arabian Peninsula, especially Bahrain.

MB Salman is good with young Gulf emirs
Washington is therefore ready to pat the king’s son MB Salman on the head and compliment him on his performance at the Gulf Cooperation Council, where he has formed close ties with the young generation of ruling emirs.
Salman Junior is now best friends with the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, and the new Qatari ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.
The Obama administration appears to entertain high hopes of this princely trio being pragmatic enough to bring about an understanding between the GCC and Iran, thereby rounding off the US president’s own success in forging a nuclear deal with Iran.
Crown Prince MB Nayef’s failing influence at the court of Riyadh, less than six months after he was elevated to the position, is not just a matter of policy; it is also personal. None of his offspring are boys, only girls, and moreover, his branch of the family is small and has little influence.