President Barack Obama this week clued Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in on the latest US intelligence input confirming that Iran will have enough enriched uranium for 4-6 bombs by March 2013, debkafile reports from its Washington and intelligence sources. His update, which took place in the framework of quiet US-Israeli intelligence-sharing on the state of Iran’s nuclear program, was Obama’s first acknowledgment that sanctions and diplomatic pressure are not having any effect on that program.
It is now clear to his administration that Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will press on toward a nuclear weapon capacity at any price - even if faced with a military threat. No pause is to be expected in Iran’s drive to accumulate enough enriched uranium to fuel a nuclear bomb arsenal, while advancing at the same time along a second track toward a plutonium bomb.
This updated US intelligence included three more data:
1. Most of the enriched uranium for the 4-6 nuclear bombs is scattered in 20-percent grade form among different caches. When vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan revealed Iran’s possession of enough fissile material for five nuclear bombs during his debate with VP Joe Biden on Oct. 10, Biden waved the revelation away with contempt.
It is now confirmed by his boss, the president.
2. After completing the transfer of advanced centrifuges to the fortified underground site at Fordo, Iran is now ready to expand uranium enrichment at Natanz by doubling the number of centrifuges working there to 6,000. The new annex to house them, on which building began in March 2011, is almost finished.
3. The technological infrastructure for the rapid conversion of 20-percent enriched uranium to the 90-percent weapons grade is now in place. It is estimated in Washington that no more than two to three weeks will elapse between a Khamenei order for the conversion to begin, to the production of enough weapons-grade material for Iran to build its first nuclear bombs.
The US intelligence experts keeping track of Iran’s program are sure they will know when that order is given.
Notwithstanding all the facts and figures from his own intelligence experts on the imminence of a nuclear Iran, President Obama is still leaning hard on Netanyahu to hold off a preemptive strike until after the Nov. 6 presidential election. He promises that, shortly after the vote, if he is reelected, he will put before Tehran the endgame document prepared by a White House team in the form of an ultimatum with a deadline for response.
But Obama is still not saying how he will respond to an Iranian rejection of the document’s main points, or whether he will again agree to return to the negotiating table while Iran is allowed to forge ahead on its bomb program. This had been the standard diplomatic format under his watch.
debkafile’s Washington sources disclose that a large group of former high-placed US diplomats, ex-officials and elder statesmen – Democrats and Republicans alike - has come forward to warn the Israeli prime minister to give up any expectation, ever, of Barack Obama’s cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue. These former top Washingtonians all harbor strong reservations about the president’s foreign policy, especially on Iran.
Some have called Netanyahu in person and warned him that the White House instituted an intelligence-sharing dialogue with Israel only as a device for delaying an Israeli attack on Iran. If reelected, they say, he will weasel out of his repeated pledges to prevent Iran attaining a nuclear weapon and certainly not countenance preventive military action by Israel.
This is no secret to Tehran. Counting on Obama maintaining this posture and Israel’s compliance, the Iranians are certain they can go full speed ahead toward their nuclear goal without fear of interference.
Our sources also disclose that three questions on Iran will be put to the president and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in their third and last debate at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, Monday, Oct. 22.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself under increasing pressure both for and against adopting a recent study concluding that the Jews have a legal and historical right to resettle Judea and Samaria.
Judea and Samaria are, of course, the biblical heartland of ancient Israel, a region central to the Jewish faith and heritage in this land. But it is also what the world calls the "West Bank" and what the Palestinian Arabs claim as their own independent state, which they insist must be Judenrein - free of Jews.
The international community has for the most part sided with the Arab position,and been harshly critical of the several hundred thousand Jews who have made their homes in Judea and Samaria over the past 35 years. These Jewish "settlers" are often labeled an obstacle to peace for daring to rebuild the cities and villages of their forefathers.
During the summer, Netanyahu commissioned a panel of jurists, including one who had been involved in formulating the so-called "Oslo Accords", to produce a study on the legality of Jewish settlement activity in Judea and Samaria.
Drawing on "international, Jordanian, Israeli and even Ottoman laws" the Levy Committee concluded that "from the point of view of international law, the classical laws of 'occupation' as set out in the relevant international conventions cannot be considered applicable to the unique and sui generis historic and legal circumstances of Israel's presence in Judea and Samaria, over the course of decades."
The Geneva Conventions define "military occupation" as the seizing of another nation's land, and the fact is that no nation legally controlled Judea and Samaria following the fall of the Ottoman Empire, which itself had ruled the area for over five centuries.
Additionally, the Jews cannot be considered an outside force in Judea and Samaria, but rather the historic founders of the territory as a unified nation-state. Jewish archeological finds dating back millennia abound in the "West Bank."
Right-wing Israeli lawmakers have been angered by Netanyahu's subsequent reluctance to adopt the Levy Committee's report. Voice of Israel Radio reported this week that with early elections looming, Netanyahu will now recommend that the government adopt part of the report.
Netanyahu still will not throw his weight behind increased Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria, but does support those parts of the Levy report that call for an end to discrimination against the "settlers" and for Israel to reject the world's description of the Jewish presence in these areas as "occupation."
Israeli lawmaker Yisrael Katz (Likud) said Netanyahu is doing the right thing, and that his position will "deliver a clear message to residents of Judea and Samaria that they can live a normal life like everyone else in the country."
Not everyone was pleased by the decision.
Opposition leader Shaul Mofaz (Kadima) appealed to Israel's attorney general to stop Netanyahu from adopting the report, arguing that doing so would obligate the next government to adhere to its findings, which left-wing Israelis reject. Mofaz said that with elections just months away (January 22), now is not the time to be making such controversial policy decisions.
Mofaz's Kadima Party was in power prior to Netanyahu's election victory less than four years ago, and was keen to surrender large swaths of Judea and Samaria to the Palestinians and to uproot the Jews living there.
A Sharia America in the making
Slowly, but steadily, the state of Michigan has been turning into a Sharia-compliant haven for the Muslim world. The culture shift that has taken place is mind-boggling. We reported about a week ago that Muslim-dominated Detroit is now America’s most crime-filled city. Even the police offer you no hope of safety when you enter in there:
“The men and women of the Detroit Police Department believe the city is too dangerous to enter, and they want citizens to know it. Detroit Police Officer Association (DPOA) Attorney Donato Iorio said officers are holding the “Enter At Your Own Risk” rally at 3:30 p.m. Saturday in front of Comerica Park to remind the public that the officers are overworked, understaffed, and at times, fearful for their lives.”
We also reported back in June about the stoning of Christians in Dearborn:
“Hundreds of angry Muslim children and adults rioted against Christians, throwing chunks of concrete and eggs at their heads, spraying them with urine and cursing at them – while police stood by and threatened the Christian victims with “disorderly conduct.”
Press 3 for Arabic
So now, the next step in the Islamization of Michigan is seen when you call the number for taxpayer-funded Public Assistance office. When you call the Michigan Public Assistance office you are told to “Press 1 for English. Press 2 for Spanish, or Press 3 for Arabic” And lest you think this is some sort of urban legend, here is the number 1-888-678-8914.
We invite you to call and hear for yourself. We called immediately prior to the writing of this article and verified it to be true.
Bit by bit, and day by day, the forces that be, are actively working to infuse Islam into our American way of life. It won’t be long before states begin to pass laws compliant with the Muslim Sharia. Can it be stopped? Perhaps…but not likely. You are watching the programmed implosion of what was once the greatest nation on the face of this earth.
And if you refuse to go along with this madness, you will be labeled a racist, a bigot. Your words of protest will be called ‘hate speech’, and it will be you and not them they will seek to neutralize.
Welcome to the United States of Islam…
Putin’s New ‘Fortress Russia’
Moscow is cozying up to China, supporting the Assad regime in Syria and ignoring the Iranian nuclear race. The Kremlin is hard at work to create a sphere of influence along its periphery and a “pole” in the multipolar world that would stand up to Washington.-Putin is implementing a “Fortress Russia” policy, which is based on repression at home and confrontation abroad. It is used to justify a $700 billion military buildup.
A place for Jews on the Temple Mount
The state of affairs on the Temple Mount is intolerable and untenable.-A way must be found to enable Jews to exercise their right to commune with their Maker, without further stoking hatred and intolerance. In fact, there is a simple and very practical solution to this predicament: build a synagogue on the Temple Mount where Jews would be free to pray as they wish.
"#UnBonJuif": Twitter deluged with French antisemitism
Jewish and anti-racist organisations in France have threatened to sue dozens of Twitter users for posting antisemitic jokes and statements on the site using the hashtag #UnBonJuif (“a good Jew”). Many tweets mocked the Holocaust, said “a good Jew is a dead Jew” or contained other racist statements which are illegal under French law.-Antisemitic violence has grown in France by 45 per cent in the first eight months of 2012.
Car bomb causes massive blast in Beirut
Lebanon's state-run news agency says a massive blast in east Beirut was caused by a car bomb and that there are casualties. An Associated Press reporter at the scene saw bloodied people being helped into ambulances and heavy damage to what appeared to be residential buildings in the mostly Christian Achrafieh neighborhood.
Small earthquake rattles western Nebraska
The U.S. Geological Survey says a magnitude 3.6 earthquake happened at 11:21 p.m. Wednesday. It was centered about 18 miles northwest of Hyannis (heye-AN'-us). Grant County Sheriff Shawn Hebbert told The Omaha-World Herald (http://bit.ly/Rbu3zF ) that some people felt the quake, saying it woke them up. The sheriff says he didn't feel a thing.
East China Sea tension: China conducts naval exercises
China is conducting naval exercises in the East China Sea, state media report, amid heightened tensions with Japan over islands both claim. The exercises are aimed at "sharpening response to emergencies in missions to safeguard territorial sovereignty", state-run Xinhua news agency said. They involve 11 ships and eight aircraft, including vessels from marine surveillance and fisheries agencies.
EU leaders agree to one banking overseer
EU leaders agreed to create a single banking overseer for the eurozone that could aid ailing banks, but Germany and Britain balked at some details. The 27 EU heads of state and government agreed "on a political framework for the end of 2012 and a gradual implementation in 2013" of a new EU single supervisory mechanism, European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly said after the first day of a two-day EU leaders' summit on resolving the eurozone debt crisis. The commission is the EU's executive body.
Moderate earthquake rattles Egypt, felt in Israel
5.0-magnitude quake comes two days ahead of Israel’s large-scale preparedness drill..
Assad launches new wave of air raids, pounding key Syrian town
Syrian regime warplanes launched a new wave of strikes Thursday on the northwestern town of Maaret al-Numan, seized by rebels last week, an AFP correspondent reported. Fighter jets began overflying and bombarding Maaret al-Numan, located on the main Damascus-Aleppo highway, in the early hours of the morning, targeting the strategic town and its periphery.
Spain banks’ worst-case scenario turning real
Bad loans as a proportion of total lending jumped to a record 10.5% in August from a restated 10.1% in July as 9.3-billion euros (US$12.2-billion) of loans were newly classified as being in default, according to data published by the Bank of Spain on its website Thursday. The ratio has climbed for 17 straight months from 0.72% in December 2006, before Spain’s property boom turned to bust.
Despite Manipulation, Swiss Gold To Become Money
There is an incredible amount of intervention and manipulation (in the gold and silver markets). I know you’ve had these superb interviews with the ‘London Trader,’ but just looking at the screen, at every important level, the gold and silver prices are being attacked and there is selling taking place.”
More Believe In Space Aliens Than In God According To U.K. Survey
More than 33 million U.K. citizens believe in extraterrestrial life, compared to just over 27 million -- less than half the country -- who believe in God. That's the result of an online survey of 1,359 adults who were asked a variety of questions ranging from belief in alien visits to Earth, suspicions of UFO cover-ups, belief in extraterrestrials vs. belief in God, and whether or not men actually landed on the moon.
Gallup study: Only 3.4 percent of US adults are LGBT
A new Gallup survey, touted as the largest of its kind, estimates that 3.4 percent of American adults identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender. The findings, released Thursday, were based on interviews with more than 121,000 people. Gallup said it is the largest study ever aimed at calculating the nation's LGBT population.
Romney leads by seven in latest Gallup tracking
Mitt Romney leads President Obama by seven points with a majority of the vote, according to Gallup’s latest tracking poll. The poll puts Romney at 52 percent, ahead of Obama who is at 45 percent.
Tornadoes, severe storms swat Southeast; 7 hurt
At least four tornadoes were part of the storm system that raked northern and central Mississippi on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, injuring at least seven people, the National Weather Service said. The biggest of the four storms was a twister that traveled 16 miles through several counties east of Jackson. With a half-mile-wide damage path, it was rated EF-3 on the Fujita scale, with peak winds estimated at 140 mph, the weather service said. That storm blew down trees as well as three electrical transmission towers.
Clashes erupt at Greek anti-austerity protests
Greek police clashed with anti-austerity protesters hurling stones and petrol bombs on the day of a general strike that brought much of the near-bankrupt country to a standstill. In the second major walkout in three weeks on Thursday, almost 40,000 protesters marched in Athens in a bid to show EU leaders meeting in Brussels that new wage and pension cuts will only worsen their plight after five years of recession.
Afghan roadside bomb kills 18 wedding guests
A massive roadside bomb has killed at least 18 people on their way to a wedding in northern Afghanistan. At least 15 others have been wounded in what a BBC correspondent called one of the worst such attacks in the country for some time.
EU summit: Compromise deal on eurozone bank supervisor
EU leaders have agreed to set up a single eurozone banking supervisor - a major step towards a banking union. A legislative framework is to be in place by 1 January next year, with the body starting work later in 2013.
Yemen soldiers killed in attack on south military base
At least nine soldiers have been killed in an attack by suspected al-Qaeda militants on a military base in southern Yemen, military officials say. The attackers drove a vehicle into the base in Shuqra, Abyan province, before blowing it up. One official said they travelled in a military vehicle and passed through several checkpoints to reach the camp.
When Christ was here, He was looking for disciples…He is still looking for them today. Man searches for leadership; Jesus seeks followers. Man elevates the educated; Christ blesses the teachable. Man struggles for power; Christ teaches submission. Man strives for prestige; the Holy Spirit produces humility. Man labors for achievement; Christ requires only obedience.
Is this the plunder of Ezekiel 38?
“Thus saith the Lord GOD; It shall also come to pass, [that] at the same time shall things come into thy mind, and thou shalt think an evil thought: And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates, To take a spoil, and to take a prey; to turn thine hand upon the desolate places that are now inhabited, and upon the people that are gathered out of the nations, which have gotten cattle and goods, that dwell in the midst of the land.” Ezekiel 38
From Israel National News: Dr. Harold Vinegar of Israel Energy Initiative Ltd. in Jerusalem is optimistic about Israel’s potential in the oil industry. He spoke to Israel National Radio’s Goldstein on Gelt show with Douglas Goldstein about energy independence and the “black gold” that is underfoot.
Dr. Vinegar was the chief scientist of Royal Dutch Shell until his retirement in 2008. He was born in Brooklyn, New York and recently made aliyah. Now, he is the chief scientist of Israel Energy Initiative Ltd. in Jerusalem, which is developing Israel’s unconventional oil reserves.
“And of Asher he said, Let Asher be blessed with children; let him be acceptable to his brethren, and let him dip his foot in oil.” Deuteronomy 33:24
With his cartoon presentation of the Iranian nuclear menace at the UN on Sept. 27, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appeared to be shifting away from military action. Instead of September 2012, he moved his red line six months forward to the late spring, early summer of 2013.
He thus removed a primary bone of contention with the Obama administration.
Since then, he seems to have taken another step back from a military option.
In his speech of Oct. 15, asking the Knesset to approve Jan. 22, 2013 as the date for an early election, Netanyahu appeared to unveil a new security doctrine with this comment:
“We did not start any unnecessary wars – we didn’t start any wars at all. In the seven years that I have served (during two separate terms), there were no wars and there was a decrease in terror. There was no war because we projected strength.”
He went on to pride himself on not having “a light finger on the trigger” – rather “a firm finger.”
On Iran, he had this to say: “We raised the Iranian threat to the center of the global agenda, and unprecedented sanctions were imposed” and “We have a capability that we didn’t have before to act against Iran and its proxies.”
He did not elaborate on this point, before going on to pledge that he would continue his policy of making Israel safe behind protective walls and fences.
Netanyahu, leader of Likud, seemed anxious to shed the hawkish image often attached to him with the help of campaign rhetoric appealing to centrist and left-leaning voters as well as buying diplomatic kudos.
Khamenei’s painful pinpricks fall short of stirring Netanyahu into action
How long Netanyahu holds to this doctrine, which fits neatly into Barack Obama’s global game plan, depends very much on who is elected to the White House on Nov. 6 – Obama or the Republican Mitt Romney - but even more on Iran walking a careful tightrope between military pinpricks against Israel and provocations that would force Netanyahu into a major response.
The prime minister’s new security doctrine, though tailored for the Israeli voter and Western opinion, also suits Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his strategic advisers. They have embarked on their own special brand of preemptive military action against Israel, and discovered that Israel will stay in its corner and not fight back so long as their well-publicized jabs are measured.
This Iranian doctrine was borne out on Oct. 6, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and Iranian sources report, when Israel did not hit back for the Iranian stealth drone launched by Hizballah, although it stayed aloft for more than two-and-a-half hours before being brought down by the Israeli air force.
In that time, the hostile drone flew over and photographed Israeli strategic sites and infrastructure, such as its Mediterranean gas and oil platforms and military bases along the coast, before turning inland to hover over the nuclear reactor in Dimona, film the building and its defense systems and fly on to record the electronic signatures of the sophisticated American X-band radar station in the Negev.
Iran’s pirated US drone capabilities make US Navy and military units vulnerable
During that time, the Israeli Air Force refrained from shooting the Iranian UAV down and neither did its air defense systems attempt interception. There were three main reasons for this:
1. The Iranian unmanned plane contained top-secret components - and therefore capabilities – pirated or copied from the American RQ-170 stealth drone brought down intact on Iranian soil with Chinese help in December 2011 (See DEBKA-Net-Weekly 560 of Oct. 12: Iran's UAV Industry-Tehran on Track for Advanced Stealth Spy and Bomber Drones).
Israel’s air, missile and cyber defense systems are not configured to detect those capabilities in hostile hands.
2. The theft of those highly-developed US drone capabilities trouble America as much as Israel. It turns out that the unmanned Iranian invader was also invisible to American monitors in the Mediterranean, including the Sixth Fleet, to US bases in Israel, and to the American X-band radar stationed in both Israel and Turkey. It took off undetected from Lebanon and remained unseen until it had spent time over southern Israel.
This means that the US Navy and military units in the Persian Gulf are wide open and vulnerable to Iranian stealth drone over-flights and surveillance.
US and Israeli engineers are working around the clock to plug these electronic holes.
Branching out from terror to breaching Israeli air space
Israel resorted to an unusual corrective measure Sunday, Oct. 14, when Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel ordered the entire air fighter jet fleet grounded for 24 hours – officially in pursuance of an inquiry into the prevalence of near-accidents in training, but in reality, for a reset of Israel’s radar and monitoring procedures for the prevention of further Iranian drone penetrations. This task could not be performed while the warplanes were in the air.
3. A third reason is the nonchalant attitude common to some Israelis, who may prefer to rely on intuition and a flair for improvisation rather than going strictly by the book. A spotter along the drone’s path may have noticed an unusual object flying overhead and decided it was harmless and not worth bothering his superiors about.
But after the event, US and Israeli military planners alike don’t doubt the UAV was the harbinger of more to come. Tuesday, Oct. 16, a senior Iranian defense official claimed that Iranian-made surveillance drones from Lebanon had for years made dozens of undetected flights into Israeli airspace to probe its air defenses and collect reconnaissance data. For Tehran therefore, this is an ongoing process.
The Islamic Republic is now perceived as having branched out from the campaign of overseas terrorist operations against Israel which it sponsored in the first half of 2012 to directly trespassing Israeli skies, using Hizballah’s Lebanese bases as launching pads.
This overflght may also be the precursor of a further escalation in line with Iran’s threatened “preemptive” assaults on Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to keep a light hand on the trigger may prove untenable and shown up as a vote-winning gambit rather than a practicable security doctrine.
Three war games on the same day, Oct. 21
And in the meantime, a lot is going on.
On Oct. 21, three important military exercises begin. The US and Israel launch AC-12, a large-scale joint war game lasting three weeks, alongside an Israeli home front drill dubbed “Turning Point 6.”
Both are geared to defending Israel against hostile missile attack from Iran, Syria and/or Hizballah.
Iran has scheduled the start of its own war game for the same day – and not by chance.
The simulated scenario selected for Israel’s home front drill is that of a high 8.0 magnitude earthquake striking the country from an epicenter in the Mediterranean Sea, followed by a huge tsunami which engulfs its coastal cities.
Israeli civil defense experts calculate that this natural disaster has the capacity to cause 7,000 deaths, injure 70,000 people and leave 170,000 homeless.
Our military sources report that Haifa and Netanyahu are targeted as the cities suffering the worst ravages.
The first of the 3,000 US troops taking part in the joint drill disembarked at Ashdod Port Monday, Oct. 15 from US landing craft, bringing with them Patriot missile batteries.
One thousand will work directly with Israeli units, the other 2,000 will man US command posts across the Middle East and parts of Europe.
Our military analysts note that the effect of tsunami waves striking Haifa and Netanyahu would be equivalent to that of a primitive nuclear device dropped by an Iranian aircraft at a certain point in Mediterranean waters opposite the two towns.
Prominent Washington figures advise Netanyahu not to bank on Obama
At the same time, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Washington sources reveal a radically shifting US scene behind the war games.
A number of high-placed Democrats and some former top US diplomats, such as former Ambassador Martin Indyk, have come forward to privately advise Netanyahu to place no reliance on Obama cooperating with Israel in a military strike against Iran’s nuclear sites if he is reelected. They warn him that Obama will continue to procrastinate and come up with very possible pretext and stratagem to avoid reaching the point of military action, whether by the United States or Israel.
This advice has been strongly supported by Henry Kissinger, Richard Nixon’s Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, and George Shulz, Ronald Reagan's Secretary of State. “Don’t wait for Obama,” they are all telling the Israeli prime minister.
This advice comes in the wake of President Obama’s latest choice of advisers on Iran, revealed by our sources: They are former Brent Scowcroft, National Security Adviser to Presidents Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush, and retired diplomat Thomas Pickering, former Undersecretary of State. Both are emphatically opposed to any US and, even more especially, an Israeli attack on Iran.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has just appointed Pickering to lead a department panel investigating the attacks in Libya which killed four American diplomats.
WASHINGTON -- Western governments believe that Iran’s economy is imploding so quickly that it could essentially collapse next spring under the combined pressure of international sanctions, an oil embargo and internal mismanagement by officials in Tehran, said a European diplomat here.
Western government experts estimate that Iran will run out of foreign exchange reserves in six months to a year, making it impossible for the Islamic Republic to sell products abroad and buy the imports it needs to continue its manufacturing sector and run public services, the European diplomat said.
Western governments have steadily tightened economic sanctions on Iran this year in the hope of crippling trade and setting off an economic crisis that will force leaders in Tehran to curb or abandon a nuclear program that the West fears is aimed at building a nuclear bomb. Tehran has remained defiant, insisting it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. Western officials believe that a full-scale balance-of-payments crisis could spark domestic unrest and threaten the regime’s survival.
The European Union this week added new sanctions on Iran’s energy, financial and natural resources sectors, moves likely to further drain Iran’s foreign currency reserves and accelerate the plunge in the value of its currency, the rial.
Sanctions have cut Iranian oil exports by half and curtailed Tehran’s ability to conduct international financial transactions, said the diplomat, who spoke to several reporters on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the subject.
Western governments have focused on calculating when Iran’s foreign exchange reserves will run low because they want to force the government to yield on nuclear development before it can enrich enough uranium and acquire sufficient knowledge to build a working warhead. Israel’s government believes that date could come late next spring; the Obama administration believes it may be several years off.
Other Western governments have avoided saying publicly when they think Iran will reach the crisis point.
Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that has pressed for tougher sanctions, said an economic meltdown would need to occur at least six months before Iran reaches the nuclear threshold. That would allow time for the economic shock to“cascade through the political system, and convince the leadership they need to change course… These guys are hard core revolutionaries,” said Dubowitz.
Cliff Kupchan, a former State Department official at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said he believes it's impossible to estimate when Iran’s economy will be disabled because so many complex factors are involved. Estimates of Iran’s accessible foreign exchange reserves vary wildly, from $30 billion to $110 billion, he noted.
“The numbers available to me don’t allow a prediction,” he said.
The Times of Israel has published a fascinating interview with a brave young Arab woman from a small town in the Galilee region who has dedicated her life to defending Israel in the public arena.
Boshra Khalaila is hardly the only Israeli Arab to speak out on behalf of her country, and her own story is very representative of the hurdles many Israeli Arabs must overcome if they wish to freely speak their mind regarding the Jewish state.
But some simply cannot remain silent any longer.
"I am a liberal, free woman, with all the rights that I could enjoy," stated Khalaila. "I compare myself to other women my age in Jordan, the [Palestinian ruled] territories, Egypt, any Arab country. They don’t have the rights that I have: freedom of expression, the right to vote. They are forced into marriage at a young age, and religious head covering, despite their own convictions. With me it’s the opposite; I have everything."