Sound The Trumpet : Will Tony Blair Become the First President of Europe?

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“Will Tony Blair Become the First President of Europe?”
by .telegraph.co.uk
October 29th, 2009

Tony Blair was on his knees on Sunday, deep in thought, in the pews of the Roman Catholic church at Great Missenden where he worshipped when he was at Chequers. As prayers were offered up for Pope Benedict and world peace, the former Prime Minister may well have had his thoughts focused on subjects closer to his own heart.

At the same time as he was in church, his close friend David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, was making the most direct case to date in public by a British minister for Mr Blair to become the first President of Europe. It was the culmination of a two-month campaign by the Foreign Office to put Britain at the heart of Europe once and for all.

Mr Blair, who scaled unheard of heights in popularity and unpopularity as Prime Minister, is now a front-runner to become the second most powerful man on the planet after President Obama. Officially, Mr Blair is saying nothing but in private he talks about it all the time. It is inconceivable that the last time he spoke to Gordon Brown – it was for 45 minutes on the telephone 10 days ago – the subject did not surface.

"Oh, he wants it," said one trusted Blair ally. "He will be more powerful than he was when he was Prime Minister." Does he still hanker after power? "Of course he does," said the ally. But not at any price.

If, as Mr Miliband suggested on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday, the EU wants someone who has the charisma and recognition factor to "stop the traffic" in Beijing, Moscow or Washington, Mr Blair is almost certain to get it.

But first Vaclav Havel, the Czech president, has to ratify the Lisbon treaty and in his latest attempt to derail the agreement he has suggested there should be a referendum. The Czech constitutional court will hold a one-day hearing into the idea of a referendum today; it is expected this will be rejected, clearing the final legal obstacle to the treaty being ratified by the entire EU. The verdict is expected next week.

Even before then, the horse trading over whether they want a "traffic stopper" or a more low-profile, committee-style chairman, and indeed the nuts and bolts of the job description, will begin in earnest on Thursday at a two-day EU summit in Brussels.

When it comes to the actual choice of EU president, it is the French and German leaders who will make the crucial decision, along with Mr Brown. If they don't want to be upstaged by someone better known across the globe than they are, the job may well go to a relatively unknown from somewhere like Finland, Holland or Luxembourg.

Unofficially, Mr Blair is "really excited" about the prospect of having a big full-time job once more, which would thrust him back into the spotlight that he misses, potentially keep him in employment until retirement age, and of course enable the former Prime Minister – who is fond of making money – to take the front seat on the lucrative EU gravy train.

It's why over the last eight weeks government ministers attending Brussels meetings or G20 negotiations have mobilised an impressive campaign to harness enthusiasm across the continent for Mr Blair as Britain's candidate.

The pitch presents him as an international statesman with the "prestige, stature and character" to raise the EU's presence on the world stage. Photographs of him with Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, just two weeks ago will have played to that description.

Mr Miliband, who Mr Blair still hopes one day will lead the Labour Party, is repaying his confidence by playing the role of campaign manager. He he has deployed Britain's formidable network of ambassadors and diplomatic contacts to push the cause of his mentor. Jonathan Powell, who was Mr Blair's chief of staff and is a seasoned former diplomat, is also using his connections.

But one person who Mr Blair has yet to persuade is his wife Cherie, who accompanied him to church on Sunday. Were they praying for the same thing? Contrary to reports that she wants to be the new Cherie Antoinette, his wife would prefer him not to take the job because it would mean a huge pay cut.

Mr Blair has earned a reputed £15 million since he left Downing Street in 2007. His annual salary would be a comparatively trifling £250,000 by comparison, although there would be a grace and favour house and of course the EU's legendary expenses.

"Cherie has got used to the millionaire lifestyle and does not want to give it up for a job which will thrust them back into the hostile glare of the media for a fraction of what he is earning now," said one friend of the former Prime Minister.

But would Mrs Blair be able to embrace the lifestyle of chauffeur-driven cars, clothing allowances, and domestic staff? "I think she would pretty quickly get used to the idea of people calling her husband Mr President," added the friend.

One vital ally in the cause is said to be Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of France. But is he? His public support for Mr Blair as the "most European" of British politicians, and their regular telephone communication, are huge factors in Mr Blair's position as front-runner.

The former British PM's speech, delivered in fluent French, to the January conference of President Sarkozy's centre-right Union pour un Mouvemenet Populaire was a clinching factor.

But that was the pragmatic President Sarkozy, a man keen to raise France's profile by having a President who would improve the EU's global credibility. In his weaker moments, however, wrapped in his emperor's clothes, he might not like the idea that President Obama telephones President Blair before President Sarkozy.

It's why some EU diplomats suspect he might have changed his mind about his old friend who failed to take Britain into the single currency and divided Europe over the Iraq war. "Can Sarkozy be trusted? Will he switch and swing behind Germany at the final hour," said one diplomat with experience of Paris putting the Franco-German alliance first.

The most crucial figure will be Angela Merkel, whose position has been made stronger by her electoral success as Chancellor in Germany last month. She "can live with him," said one source, but would prefer a low profile candidate chairing EU summits rather than a colossus bestriding the globe.

Chancellor Merkel, though agnostic, is thought to favour Jan Peter Balkenende, the Dutch Prime Minister little known outside his own country.

William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, has also intervened. arguing that an incoming Conservative government would regard the elevation of Mr Blair to European president as a "hostile act".

The tactic may well have backfired. Mrs Merkel is not only angry with David Cameron's Conservatives for threatening some as yet unspecified act again the Lisbon Treaty if they win the election, but also for withdrawing his MEPs from the mainstream centre-right People's Party in the European parliament. "It might well be that Merkel will see Blair as a check on Cameron," said one official.

José Manuel Barroso, the commission president, has also backed the ideas of the president being more of a committee chairman rather than a world leader. Only yesterday John Bruton, the Commission's outgoing "ambassador" to Washington, made a similar point. He said: "My own sense of it is that it's going to be more a job for someone working behind the scenes to forge consensus, bearing in mind that the decisions of the European Council are all taken on the basis of consensus."

Behind the scenes fighting the British corner is Sir Kim Darroch, who was appointed by Mr Blair shortly before he stood down, as ambassador to the EU. It was a shrewd appointment. Sir Kim, who was Mr Blair's Europe adviser for three years, has forged such good contacts he is seen in Brussels as Blair's "secret weapon".

"If anyone can make sure this job sounds harmless but projects a global role for the right personality it is Darroch," said one diplomat from another EU state. Another official recalled dining with Mr Blair. "He got used to being British leader in the front rank and was clear he would not take the European job if it meant standing behind heads of government when summit photographs are taken."

So, the final countdown has begun in earnest. Will we be seeing a magisterial motorcade for a statesman of Mr Blair's international stature, or a more modest form of transport befitting a politician who could not stop the traffic in his own back yard?

Or, as one Blairite ally puts it: "Do they want a president who has the red carpet rolled out in Beijing or one who waits in the queue at immigration because no one recognises him? That is the test."

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