The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency took off the gloves this week and bluntly said it was his "gut feeling" that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The agency, which has spent years trying to conduct inspections at nuclear installations in the country, has been reticent to make a concrete statement about what Iran intends to do with the nuclear technology it has continued to pursue despite U.N. sanctions leveled against it.
Mohamed ElBaradei, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency said in an interview with the British Broadcasting System (BBC) this week, "It is my gut feeling that Iran would like to have the technology to enable it to have nuclear weapons. They want to send a message to their neighbors, to the rest of the world, 'Don't mess with us,'" he said.
The "ultimate aim," he added, was to be "recognized as a major power in the Middle East" and "the road to get that recognition, to get that power and prestige," was through development of the country's nuclear power. "It is also an insurance policy against what they have heard in the past about regime change," he added.
Regime change is a major concern in Iran at the moment: incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is trying to hold on to his position by stifling an insistent roar of protests by activists who say he stole last Friday's presidential election.
The country's Interior Ministry said that Ahmadinejad had won the race in a landslide victory announced in a hasty announcement made barely two hours after the polls had closed. When the votes were supposedly counted, the numbers were suspiciously lopsided even in the hometown of relatively moderate challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has since called for the election to be annulled and held a second time.
Hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters have continued to show up for massive protests in cities across Iran despite a violent crackdown on dissidents by Basij militia forces loyal to Ahmadinejad.
Dozens of protesters have been beaten and at least 12 have been shot and killed, according to media reports. Local sources said the numbers were far higher. A massive demonstration was called for Thursday afternoon in the capital, and Mousavi was to address the hundreds of thousands who were expected to attend. The challenger urged his supporters to wear black as a sign of mourning for the rigged elections and in honor of the memory of those who had been slain by government militia forces during demonstrations in the past week.
Presidential Change Won't Bring Policy Change
Political analysts, as well as politicians outside the country, believe it is unlikely Iran's nuclear policy will change, regardless of whether it is Ahmadinejad or Mousavi who ends up as president.
U.S. President Barack Obama told reporters Wednesday that he believes there is little difference between the two, but added that in any case, it didn't really matter.
“It’s important to understand that although there is amazing ferment taking place in Iran, the difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised,” he said.
Obama added that “either way we are going to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has historically been hostile to the United States, that has caused some problems in the neighborhood and has been pursuing nuclear weapons.”