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“Six Triggers That Could Renew a Eurozone Crisis in 2015”
by The Telegraph   
December 9th, 2014

Tensions in the eurozone's largest economies could pull the region apart next year, as a number of political risks could bubble over, according to Nordea

If the eurozone implodes, Britain will go with it
The euro project could face fresh challenges in 2015. Photo: BLOOMBERG

The latest instalment of the eurozone crisis could be back on the table as early as next year, as political tensions threaten to boil over.

Several potential breaking points in the euro area have been identified by the Nordic bank Nordea, each of which could create new rifts in an already fractured monetary union.

Jan von Gerich, chief strategist for developed markets at the bank, said that “even though many of the risks may seem remote, there are plenty of them”.

1. Germany loses faith in euro project

Unrest over the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy, considered to be too stimulatory for the German economy, could reach a tipping point.

QE would “emphasise the differing views of the German Bundesbank, in which the Germans take great pride in, and the ECB”, said Mr von Gerich.

This could in turn increase the popularity of the anti-euro Alternative for Germany party, and heighten investor fears that the country will launch its own currency.

2. Spanish uncertainty reaches breaking point

Catalonia’s “quest for independence” could wreak havoc in bond markets next year, as reluctance by the Spanish government to contemplate a break up “could only increase the calls”.

Mr von Gerich said that at worst, this could “turn the more moderate Catalans, who would currently be happy with more autonomy, into supporters of independence”.

If the movement gained momentum, managing to split apart from Spain, this “would set a precedent and could quickly revive fears of at least a partial break-up of the euro”.

Separately, the left-wing party Podemos has taken primacy in polls, and could stand in the way of further economic reforms.

“If the party gains further in the polls, as elections loom, markets are likely to start to worry more”, Mr von Gerich said.

3. France calls it a day

French’s left-leaning politicians haven’t been quiet about the idea that the euro is too strong for their economy.

A lack of structural reform and almost no public support for more, along with little support from the ECB mean that France is likely to continue to struggle economically.

Another election isn’t due until 2017, but the far-right Front National “is already transforming the political landscape”, having become the largest in this year’s European Parliamentary elections.

4. Pain of Italian reforms drives country away

The Italian economy is in poor health, and the reforms of Matteo Renzi, its Prime Minister, are seen as “the best chance” it has had for ages.

Yet the rise of opposition parties threatens to derail that programme of reforms. Silvio Berlusconi has called for a second euro currency, and now all opposition parties have taken an anti-euro position.

Early elections - in which Mr Renzi is looking to secure a majority - could provide a catalyst for the exit of the eurozone’s third largest member.

5. Greece turns to left-wing extremes

Greece has been the poster boy for the eurozone’s failures, and an environment of low growth and high unemployment have bred support for radical alternatives.

Left-wing Syriza have now consistently been ahead in polls, as an election approaches in 2016. An earlier vote in spring next year could be a possibility.

Mr von Gerich said: “the Greek stance towards the Euro area could look quite different under a Syriza government, while even the prospect of such an outcome could easily shake markets”.

6. European Central Bank runs into Berlin Wall

The ECB can control a lot, and its “firepower would certainly be sufficient to prevent sovereign bond yields from skyrocketing again”.

But tackling the political concerns of the eurozone’s constituent states is a more difficult matter, and restoring the currency bloc may become more difficult if political risks flare up.

Would the ECB be willing to act if they do? “We already know that the ECB is attaching terms to its interventions, and it is likely to try to shun political risks as much as possible going forward as well, said Mr von Gerich.

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