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“World Bank Rings Alarm Over Worst - Case Ebola Scenario”
by The Telegraph   
October 9th, 2014
MSF staff carry the body of a person killed by viral haemorrhagic fever in Guekedou, Guinea, in April 2014
The World Bank urged the international community to help Photo: Seyllou/AFP

The spread of the deadly Ebola virus could result in a £20bn hit to economies in Africa and cause turmoil in financial markets, experts have warned.

The World Bank on Wednesday outlined a worst-case scenario that would see almost 12pc wiped off the economy of Liberia, the country worst affected by the outbreak, and 3.3pc off the entire west African region.

It came as analysts at Barclays predicted that if the virus establishes itself further in Asia or the West, the impact on financial markets could be severe, and is likely to be felt more than Asia’s SARS outbreak a decade ago.

Economists are beginning to count the cost of the Ebola crisis as the death toll climbs above 3,400 and shows signs of spreading beyond Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, where it has largely been contained so far.

Shares in UK-listed travel companies and airlines fell amid growing fears that the spread of the virus would hit demand. TUI Travel, easyJet and British Airways-owner IAG all dropped on Wednesday.

Under a “High Ebola” scenario, in which the virus spreads beyond the current locations to neighbouring Nigeria and Ivory Coast, the World Bank estimated the cost to these economies would be $32.6bn (£20.3bn) – or 3.3pc of the combined GDPs of the countries affected – by the end of next year.

It would also see growth across the region fall from 6.9pc last year to 5.6pc in 2014 and 4.1pc in 2015.

If the virus can be contained and managed within the three countries currently affected, this “Low Ebola” scenario would mean a $3.8bn hit.

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