For many years, the United States of America has enjoyed the privilege of being called “the world’s policeman” or NATO- leading “Globocop”. These positions may hold in theory but less and less in practice or reality, largely due to the aggressive and systematic downgrading of the U.S military spending, seemingly coupled with a weakening of U.S political resolve and support both for pro-active deterrent as well as defensive military action around the world. The end result expected over time is that the U.S will become increasingly weaker than, and more vulnerable to, Russia and China – not to mention ISIS, Al Qaeda and other competing or hostile countries and organizations.
Recent reports provide supporting evidence for these concerns. According to the Trumpet.com,some experts warn that the spending cuts could soon give Russia and China an edge over the U.S. in several advanced military technologies. Total shortfalls in the U.S. defense budget over the next five to 10 years could reach $1 trillion, according to a report by the bipartisan National Defense Panel released July 31.
How did this state of affairs arise? It is reported that back in 2009, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates waged a campaign to slash unnecessary or under-performing military programs. By 2011, he had proposed a budget that would have allowed the DOD (Department of Defense) to focus more on modernization programs to sustain the technological advantage of the U.S. military. But later that year, the Budget Control Act and the conditional sequester were both written into law. The National Defense Panel says that the combined effect of those actions slashes the Gates budget by just under $1 trillion over 10 years.
The consequences are likely to be most evident in three areas:
1. Increased U.S Military vulnerabilities through technological divestiture:
The Trumpet.com further explains that massive spending reductions and shortfalls will ripple across all branches of the U.S. armed forces, having an obvious effect on aircraft, watercraft and tanks. They will also have an impact—less immediately noticeable, but more detrimental—on the advanced military technologies that have granted American forces a critical battlefield edge for many decades.
These technologies include:
• Space-based targeting and deployment systems;
• Next-generation reconnaissance and navigation methods;
• Robotics for specialized combat;
• Unmanned submarines;
• Specialized fuel;
• “Global strike capability” systems;
• Stealth technology.
Meanwhile, two of America’s most powerful rivals, Russia and China, are investing ever-larger percentages of their growing gross domestic products into developing advanced military technologies. Langley’s Intelligence Group says that Moscow and Beijing are making strides in these areas that could eventually give them an edge over the United States. “Russia and China … are ramping up their considerable scientific expertise from the ground all the way up into space,” Langley’s wrote on August 13. They are “looking for ways to use new technologies to blunt U.S. hegemony in areas of the world they deem of interest.”
2. Enhanced Military co-operation between U.S military adversaries and her competitors:
As the West has sought to isolate Moscow over the Ukrainian crisis, Russia and China have entered into a new era of unprecedented military cooperation. Part of this has been a new willingness on Moscow’s part to share its cutting-edge military technology with the Chinese. One significant example of this came in late March when Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to sell the S-400 Triumf, a new generation anti-aircraft weapons system, to China. Once the deal is finalized, China will be the first foreign nation to use the sophisticated Russian weaponry.
Another key area of co-operation has been in joint military operations. The Trumpet.com in a separate and more recent edition reported that China’s Inner Mongolia held the biggest military drill ever held by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The training of 7,000 servicemen from five SCO member states was reportedly set to test troops’ effectiveness in fighting terrorism. The so-called Peace Mission-2014 drill was conducted from August 24 to 29 in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
The war games attracted a record number of troops and military hardware, never previously gathered in one place before by the SCO member states. Apart from infantry troops and special forces, the international task force has been strengthened with air defense systems, radio-electronic warfare units and aviation. According to the scenario, the international task force will eliminate terrorist groups in various situations and environments.
This kind of training, although being fronted as purely anti-terrorist in focus, could in many ways be easily adapted to standard military warfare that could place the United States at a serious disadvantage at all levels if ever threatened by a joint China and/or Russia-led attack: army infantry, navy, and air force.
3. Acquisition of newer and more powerful military equipment by Russia and China:
According to a recent report in NationalInterest.org, new advances are bringing the Chinese defense-industrial base ever closer to its counterparts (indeed, in some ways Chinese technology has surpassed Russian). The report examines five pieces of future Chinese military technology that could become “game changers”:
- Aircraft Carriers: China has signaled intentions to develop ships that may carry stealth-style fighters and could possibly launch AEW (airborne early warning) aircraft.
- Type 055 Cruiser: China appears to be building its first big cruisers, representing a jump forward for China’s naval capabilities. Analysts have estimated the Type 055 at around 12,000 tons, and have suggested that it could carry up to 128 vertical launch cells. A cruiser of this size could threaten to strike into the deep interior with cruise missiles, or could control the airspace in order to protect a task force.
- The J-20 Stealth Fighter: This fighter has been undergoing development since 2011 and is certainly a large aircraft, presumably with a long range and a significant weapons load. This presumably makes it capable of threatening US and allied military installations across the Asia-Pacific, especially when armed with air launched cruise missiles. The J-20 could also conduct interception and long-range recon missions. Assisted by other complementary systems, the J-20 could potentially throw the military infrastructure of the United States and its Pacific allies out of balance. The United States has become accustomed to using stealth aircraft, but it has yet to face a serious stealth threat.
- DF-41: Intercontinental ballistic missiles aren’t new, even for China. But the DF-41 heralds a shift from minimal deterrence to secure second strike. If China begins to build such missiles in large numbers, it can effectively equalize its nuclear relationship with Russia and the United States, as well as neutralize any effective national missile defense fielded by the U.S.
Russia too is working hard at building up military advantages at all levels. According to the Russia and India Report, there are some new top products for the Russian military that have been displayed in public at the Oboronexpo-2014 exhibition, including the following examples:
- The S-400 Triumf surface to air missile(SAM):
The SAM is designed for destroying aerodynamic targets in the air (tactical and strategic aircraft, jammers, and cruise missiles) including those using stealth technology, as well as ballistic rockets with a range of up to 3500 km, hypersonic targets, and other current and future air attack technologies. This is part of the technology that has been sold to China.
- The BPDM Typhoon-M counter-sabotage combat vehicle:
The BPDM was designed for the benefit of Russia’s Strategic Missile.Its main function is protecting strategic missile systems and engaging with enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
- The heavy IFV ATOM:
The vehicle is designed for transporting motorized infantry units and hauling combat and fire support to dismounted riflemen.
Although these examples have been made public, it is no secret that the most potent and powerful weapons held may well remain classified top secret information until they outlive their competitive edge over potential adversaries. It looks like the United States has a lot to worry about unless she still holds a massive military advantage in ways that have yet to be made public. All indications however are that, with each passing day, she is instead becoming more and more of a sitting duck for all her potential adversaries.