Looking for His glorious appearing! Titus 2:13

Any country that has failed to lock in a self-sustaining recovery by now must expect to pay the price for the failings of its policy establishment, and some risk a slide into outright deflation.

“We see building evidence of a cyclical downturn,” said Fredrik Nerbrand, HSBC’s global asset guru. “We find it highly troubling that the eurozone is still marred in a recession at the same time as our cyclical indicators appear to have peaked.”

The bank said there is a market “disconnect” between the world’s gloomy outlook and talk of tapering by the US Federal Reserve, the supposed moment when it starts to wind down its $85bn of monthly bond purchases.

It is surprising to me that HSBC’s leading indicator has taken so long to buckle, since commodities topped in September and the Dutch CPB index of world trade contracted over the February-March period. Rarely has there ever been such an equity boom on such quicksand.

Mr Nerbrand said slowing momentum “should send shivers down the spine of any investors that are long risk”. Yet markets are betting that central banks will come to the rescue yet again if need be. This may be so, but only after they have first struck a blow against moral hazard and demonstrated their distaste for asset bubbles. The central banks take their time. Mr Nerbrand says they will not act until the markets have already priced in a “sub-optimal outcome”, Canary Wharf dialect for a nasty sell-off.