
Israel will find itself diplomatically sidelined and militarily  muzzled as the United States pursues a nuclear deal with Iran next year,  according to a closed-door wargame at Israel's top strategic think tank.  
Not even a warning shot by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - the  simulation featured an undeclared Israeli commando raid on Iran's Arak heavy  water plant - would shake U.S. President Barack Obamas's insistence on dialogue. 
Israel's arch-foe, meanwhile, will likely keep enriching uranium, perhaps even winning the grudging assent of the West.
"The Iranians came out feeling better than the Americans, as they were simply more determined to stick to their objectives," said Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser who played Netanyahu in the Nov. 1 wargame at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
Reflecting Israel's relative isolation, Eiland and his team spent much of the  simulation sequestered from the multilateral talks in the snug, three-storey  INSS building. 
"Netanyahu" did have hallway encounters with President  Barack Obama -- played by Zvi Rafiah, an Israeli ex-diplomat with extensive U.S.  ties. But their chats were hasty and hazy. 
"Our leverage over the  Americans, when we could prise them away from the Iranians and Europeans and  others, was limited," Eiland told Reuters. "Pretty much the only card we had to  play was the military action card. And that's a faded card." 
Assumed to  have the region's sole atomic arsenal, Israel has hinted at preemptive air  strikes as a last resort for denying Iran the means to make a bomb. But many  experts believe Israel would be tactically stymied and loath to cross  Washington, which is wary of unleashing a fresh Middle East conflict. 
"I  care about Israel. I must defend Israel. But Israel cannot act unilaterally,"  said Rafiah, channelling Obama.