Sound The Trumpet : Analyst: Pakistan intervention on tap for U.S.?

Must Listen

Must Read

What Art Thinks

Pre-Millennialism

Today's Headlines

Sorry... Not Available

Locally Contributed...

Audio

Video

Special Interest

Daily News

7226

“Analyst: Pakistan intervention on tap for U.S.?”
by WND
August 1st, 2009

Pakistan – and not Afghanistan – stands to be the greater threat to U.S. strategic interests and offers the best chance through its military to align with al-Qaida while maintaining an arsenal of nuclear weapons, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

And analysts say the result ultimately could be U.S. military intervention inside Pakistan – an invasion.

This is due to Pakistan being considered "beyond retrieval" from state-failure despite massive U.S. strategic, political and economic assistance over time, including support for the Pakistan Army that remains "sluggish" in going after al-Qaida and the Taliban which it helped create.

This assessment emerges as security analysts undertake a comparative risk forecast between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It comes as the U.S. puts the final touches on its Afghanistan-Pakistan Policy, now called the Af-Pak Policy, which reportedly dwells on Afghanistan but doesn't address the more dire threats from Pakistan.

In essence, regional security analysts increasingly believe the Af-Pak Policy will not address the threats the U.S. seeks to eliminate. Instead, they believe approaches toward both countries need to be decoupled, with a greater emphasis placed on the dangers of a quickly eroding, failed-state that Pakistan is becoming.

Last March, President Barack Obama announced his Af-Pak Policy with a greater focus on Afghanistan, an effort to work with less radical elements of the Taliban there and a greater development of civilian institutions such as schools, roads and clinics in the tribal areas in the south. It also calls for greater Pakistani Army cooperation with the U.S. in going after the more radical Taliban elements, and al-Qaida. U.S. aid to Pakistan would be intricately tied to such cooperation.

"Afghanistan has a vested positive interest in the success of the U.S. Af-Pak Policy," said Subhash Kapila, an international relations and strategic affairs analyst with the South Asia Analysis Group.

"Contrarily, the Pakistan Army has a vested interest in impeding the successful implementation of the U.S. Af-Pak Policy as it doubly neutralizes Pakistan Army's doctrine of 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan and liquidation of Pakistan Army's strategic assets, usable against Afghanistan and India, namely, al-Qaida and the Taliban," he said. "If ever the United States faces a Vietnam-like situation in the Af-Pak Region, it will not be in Afghanistan but in Pakistan."

In this connection, Kapila and other analysts say that the next 12 to 18 months will be critical for the success of the Af-Pak Policy. They see the Pakistan Army "with its propensity to indulge in 'minimal military operations'" against al-Qaida and the Taliban coming under mounting U.S. pressure to deliver on "U.S. strategic end-aims."

"Sustained pressure from the United States could once again prompt the Pakistan Army to divert attention by military adventurism against India, a repeat of Mumbai 9/11 and a possible repeat of 9/11 in the United States," Kapila said.

Kapila is one who does not dismiss the notion that the Pakistani Directorate for Inter-Service Intelligence, or ISI, had some knowledge of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the U.S., given its closeness to al-Qaida.

He expects within the next 12 to 18 months, the likely direction will be that the Pakistan Army will face U.S. ultimatums of direct military intervention within Pakistan, should it be sluggish in its operations against al-Qaida and the Taliban.

Looking for His glorious appearing! Titus 2:13