12 Clear Signals That the U.S. Economy is About to Really Slow Down 
by theeconomiccollapseblog   
June 9th, 2013
A lot of things that have not happened since the last recession  are starting to happen again. As you read the list below, you will notice that  the year "2009" comes up again and again. There is a reason for that. Many of  the same patterns that we witnessed during the last major economic downturn are  starting to repeat themselves. 
In fact, many of the things that are  happening right now have not happened in quite a few years. For example,  manufacturing activity in the U.S. has contracted for the first time in four  years. The inventory to sales ratio is the highest that it has been in four  years. Average hourly compensation just experienced the largest decline that we  have seen in four years. 
We also just witnessed the largest decline in  the number of mortgage applications that we have seen in four years. After  everything that Barack Obama, the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve have  tried to do, there has been no real economic recovery and now the U.S. economy  is suddenly behaving as if it is 2009 all over again. 
A whole host of  recent surveys indicate that the American people are starting to feel a bit  better about the economy, but the underlying economic numbers tell an entirely  different story. The following are 12 clear signals that the U.S. economy is  about to really slow down...
#1 The average interest rate on a 30 year  mortgage has risen above 4 percent for the first time in more than a  year.
#2 The decline in the number of mortgage applications last week was  the largest drop that we have seen since June 2009.
#3 Mark Hanson is  reporting that "mass layoffs" have occurred at three large mortgage  institutions...
This morning I was made aware that three large private  mortgage bankers I follow closely for trends in mortgage finance ALL had mass  layoffs last Friday and yesterday to the tune of 25% to 50% of their operations  staff (intake, processing, underwriting, document drawing, funding,  post-closing).
This obviously means that my reports of refi apps being  down 65% to 90% in the past 3 weeks are far more accurate than the lagging MBA  index, which is likely on its' way to print multi-year lows in the next  month.
#4 It was just announced that average hourly compensation in the  United States experienced its largest drop since 2009 during the first quarter  of 2013.
#5 As I wrote about the other day, the Institute for Supply  Management manufacturing index declined to 49.0 in May. Any reading below 50  indicates contraction. That was the first contraction in manufacturing activity  in the U.S. that we have seen since 2009.
#6 The inventory to sales ratio  has hit a level not seen since 2009. That means that there is a lot of inventory  sitting out there that people are not buying.
#7 According to the  Commerce Department, the demand for computers dropped by a stunning 9 percent  during the month of April.
#8 As I noted in a previous article, corporate  revenues are falling at Wal-Mart, Proctor and Gamble, Starbucks, AT&T,  Safeway, American Express and IBM.
#9 Job growth at small businesses is  now at about half the level it was at the beginning of the year.
#10 The  stock market is starting to understand that all of these numbers indicate that  the U.S. economy is really starting to slow down. The Dow was down 216.95 points  on Wednesday, and it dropped below 15,000 for the first time since May  6th.
#11 The S&P 500 has now fallen more than 4 percent since May  22nd. Is this the beginning of a market "correction", or is this something much  bigger than that?
#12 Japanese stocks are now down about 17 percent from  the peak of May 22nd. Japan has the third largest economy on the planet and it  is one of the most important trading partners for the United States. A major  financial crisis in Japan would have very serious implications for the U.S.  economy.
If we were going to have an "economic recovery", it should have  happened in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Unfortunately, as a recent Los Angeles Times  article detailed, an economic recovery never materialized...
Real GDP  growth — the value of goods and services produced after adjusting for inflation  — is 15.4% below the 3% growth trend of past recoveries, wrote Edward Leamer,  director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. More robust growth will be necessary to  bring this recovery in line with previous ones.
"It's not a recovery," he  wrote. "It's not even normal growth. It's bad."
Now we are rapidly  approaching another major economic downturn.
But poverty in America has  continued to experience explosive growth since the end of the last recession and  dependence on the federal government is already at an all-time high.
How  much worse can things get?
Sadly, they are going to get much, much  worse.
What the U.S. economy is experiencing right now is not just a  cyclical downturn. Rather, we are in the midst of a long-term economic decline  that is the result of decades of very foolish decisions by our  leaders.
It is imperative that we get the American people educated about  what is happening. If people do not understand what is happening, they are not  going to get prepared for the hard years that are coming.
If you have a  family member or a friend that does not understand the long-term economic  collapse that is unfolding all around us, please show them my article entitled  "40 Statistics About The Fall Of The U.S. Economy That Are Almost Too Crazy To  Believe". It goes a good job of pointing out many of the reasons why we are  heading for complete and total economic disaster.
And the point is not to  fill people with fear. Rather, there is a lot of hope in understanding what is  happening and in getting prepared. As we have seen over in Europe, those that  get blindsided by economic problems often become totally consumed with despair.  Suicide rates have soared in economically-troubled nations such as Greece, Spain  and Italy.
And the same thing is going to happen in the United States  too. In fact, the suicide rate in the United States has already been rising  according to the New York Times...
From 1999 to 2010, the suicide rate  among Americans ages 35 to 64 rose by nearly 30 percent, to 17.6 deaths per  100,000 people, up from 13.7.
In fact, today more Americans are killed by  suicide than by car accidents.
Isn't that crazy?
Unfortunately,  this is only just the beginning. When the system fails, millions of Americans  are going to be convinced that their lives are over. A lot of them are going to  do some very stupid things. We want to try to prevent as much of that as  possible.
Thanks to decades of incredibly foolish decisions by our  leaders, an economic collapse is inevitable. This is especially true considering  the fact that our leaders in Washington D.C. and elsewhere will not even  consider many of the potential solutions which could help start turning our  economic problems around.
So since there are no solutions on the horizon,  we need to explain to people what is happening and help them to get as prepared  as possible.
The years ahead are going to be very hard, but we have a  choice as to how we will respond to the challenges in front of us.