
 Aspects of a possible confederation between a Palestinian West Bank state and  the Hashemite Kingdom – not Syria - were the subject of Prime Minister Binyamin  Netanyahu’s recent conversation with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Amman, debkafile’s sources reveal. Nothing  was decided and the two leaders agreed to hold further discussions in the coming  days. This idea has become a focal talking point in Amman, Washington and  Palestinian centers. According to US and Jordanian sources au fait with these ideas, the  current goal for the next stage of  Israel-Palestinian negotiations in the coming months would be a long-term  interim accord. It would leave the core disputes on permanent borders,  Jerusalem, the Palestinian refugees and the future of Israel’s settlements in  Judea and Samaria to a later round of negotiations at some unspecified time in  the future. The establishment of a Palestinian-Jordanian confederation would sidestep the  difficulties of reciprocal recognition - a Palestinian state by Israel and  Israel by the Palestinians as the national state of the Jewish people. Jordan  has recognized Israel and the two nations maintain full diplomatic relations.  The confederation’s ruling body as such would be able to recognize Israel  without requiring a public Palestinian declaration of acceptance. Equally,  Israel would be saved from having to formally accept Palestinian statehood and  could simply greet the new joint entity and extend an assurance of cooperation  that in practice would be implemented through Jordan or any Muslim Arab element  taking part in the move. In early December, the Palestinian Authority’s Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu  Mazen) secretly advised certain Palestinian leaders “to be prepared for a new  confederation project with Jordan and other parties in the international  community.” American sources said at the time that Washington was not averse to  additional Gulf nations including Saudi Arabia adding their weight to the  initiative for a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation and was willing, if it took  off, to consider granting the endeavor security guarantees and economic  assistance. Asked why the project had not figured in Israeli political discourse, those  sources accused the Israeli media of generating an election campaign climate  that hostilely depicted Netanyahu and his party as extreme right-wing  nationalists who consistently refused to talk peace with the Palestinians.   Showing the prime minister as quietly preparing to return to the peace track  after forming his next government, assuming he wins the Jan. 22 poll, would  spoil their show. Netanyahu himself prefers to stay aloof from his accusers. According to Arab sources involved in the new initiative, it gained traction  from the UN General Assembly’s Nov. 29 upgrade of the Palestinians to non-member  observer status. On the strength of this upgrade, the Palestinian Authority is  claiming the status of a government representing an independent state and  therefore eligible to join Jordan as a confederation partner. Such a setup may have room for Hamas which too would be saved from having to  recognize the state of Israel. For the first time in their decade-long rocket offensive against their  Israeli neighbors, the Gaza Strip's Hamas rulers are scrupulously upholding the  ceasefire deal they struck with Israel.  The Netanyahu government has  reciprocated by substantially easing restrictions on the territory. And now,  after six years, Israel will this week allow  building materials to cross  through into the territory, including cement and gravel, withheld until now lest  they were used to build smuggling tunnels for supplying terrorist organizations  with war materiel. Public transport, including buses and trucks, will also soon  be running through the crossings and, for the first time, too, a large group of  Gazans was allowed to attend this year’s Christmas ceremonies in the West Bank  town of Bethlehem. Netanyahu appears to have decided that the chances of another outbreak of  hostile operations from the Gaza Strip have receded.  Indeed, there is a good  chance that Hamas may find the confederation project the West Bank’s Fatah  rulers are about to pursue with Jordan attractive, and let itself be led to join  by  Egypt and Qatar. There are more straws in the wind attesting to the confederation project  being on the move. The US-based Palestinian professor and journalist, Daoud  Kuttab, writing in The Atlantic on Dec. 27, reported that King  Abdullah’s closest advisers include partisans of the confederation notion – i.e.  Jordan’s restoration to its pre-1967 rule of the West Bank.  Interestingly, this phrase is increasingly cited by Arab and Western  media.
Netanyahu brought some pointed questions to the highly  confidential one-on-one at the Hashemite palace: He asked the king how much  responsibility would Jordan undertake in controlling West Bank security and  intelligence activity? What were his plans for extending such control from the  West Bank to the Gaza Strip? And how would Jordan’s intentions fit into the  security arrangements demanded by Israel in both territories as part of any  accord with the Palestinians?
He did not name those parties. debkafile’s sources reveal that he  was referring to Egypt, Turkey and Qatar – in other words, the members of the  pro-American Sunni-led bloc American diplomats established in Cairo last month  in the course of Israel’s Pillar of Defense operation in Gaza and the  negotiations that led to an Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
Kuttab goes back  in history to quote the late Salah Khalaf (Abu Iyad), the terrorist leader  Israel eliminated in Tunis in January, 1991, as saying: “What the Palestinians  wanted was five minute of independence and then they would happily agree to a  confederation with Jordan. “
Furthermore, US and Arab sources disclose that Turkish Prime Minister  Tayyip Erdogan has deeply committed himself to the step. They say this  commitment was partly manifested by his consent to drop Ankara’s boycott  on cooperation with Israel in the framework of NATO and that more evidence  of revived US-Turkish-Israeli cooperation is still to come.
Dec. 23, debkafile reported exclusively that  Israel and the Palestinians had agreed to resume peace negotiations in March, as  soon as Netanyahu, who is generally expected to win the January election, has  assembled his new government.
The Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem made  haste Thursday to deny reports that he planned to invite opposition leader and  former foreign minister Tzipi Livni to join the next cabinet in her old job as  lead negotiator in talks with the Palestinians. According to our sources,  Netanyahu has reserved that role for himself.